August 29, 2025 | Tariff Escalation, Tech Volatility, and Inflation Watch.

Good Morning & Market Recap

Indian markets closed lower on Thursday, weighed down by tariff concerns as investors digested the impact of 50% tariffs on US exports that took effect Wednesday. The Sensex fell 705.97 points (-0.87%) to close at 80,080.57, while the Nifty 50 declined 211.15 points (-0.85%) to 24,500.9.

Overnight, US equities notched fresh records in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, while tech sentiment remained mixed following Nvidia’s results. European markets closed modestly higher, and Asian markets are tentatively green this morning with focus firmly on US PCE inflation data due later today.

Regional Snapshot

• Europe (Thu close): STOXX 600 +0.3%, supported by Nvidia read-through
• Asia (Fri morning): Modestly higher; markets await US PCE
• GIFT Nifty (pre-open): 24,674.00 at 08:03 IST (Sep-30 contract)
• US Futures: Dow & S&P modestly positive; Nasdaq 100 slightly lower

What’s different today?
The new US tariffs are among the highest in Asia, intensifying tensions between New Delhi and Washington over India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil. Bank Nifty also weakened, retreating to 53,820.35, down 1.16% from the previous session.

INR & Commodities (cross-checked)

• USD/INR (Thu close): 87.6559 (FBIL); spot close near 87.63
• Gold: Broadly steady ahead of PCE
• Crude: Brent hovering near the $68 mark after a mid-week pullback

Key Watch Factors

• US PCE inflation data – critical for Fed rate-cut expectations
• Ongoing earnings season, with focus on IT commentary
• Spillover impact of global tariffs on trade-sensitive sectors

Tech Pulse

Global Tech Sentiment: Signals remain mixed after Nvidia’s results failed to meet some analyst projections, weighing on global tech indices. The UK tech index fell 1.4% following the announcement.

Indian IT Impact: Domestic IT stocks remained under pressure, with HCLTech, TCS, and Infosys among the top laggards. The Nifty IT index declined over 1%, reflecting global tech headwinds.

Sector Trigger: Watch US PCE inflation at 6:00 PM IST. A higher-than-expected print could weaken expectations of Fed dovishness and further pressure growth-sensitive tech stocks.

UPI Credit Lines (Go-Live: 31 Aug):
The ecosystem is gearing up for pre-approved credit lines via UPI, with banks and fintechs testing flows ahead of launch. Sentiment remains a tailwind for payments rails and small-ticket credit, with issuer activity and BNPL adjacencies worth monitoring as user ramp-up begins in September.

Funding Radar

Major funding announcements remained limited over the past 24 hours as investors adopt a wait-and-watch approach amid tariff uncertainty and evolving policy signals.

Key Developments

• Groww received SEBI approval for an IPO reportedly in the $0.8–1.0bn range, potentially driving re-rating across brokerage and wealth-tech platforms.
• IPO Flow Check: Infrastructure names continue to see strong subscription metrics, while SME activity remains elevated, indicating healthy primary-market liquidity despite broader volatility.

Sectoral Impact: Fintech and e-commerce funding may face near-term headwinds if tariff tensions escalate, particularly for businesses exposed to cross-border payments or import-heavy models.

Market Movers & Watchlist

Top Gainers

• Titan Company (strong quarterly profit growth)
• L&T (robust earnings momentum)
• Maruti Suzuki (resilient auto performance)
• Biocon / InterGlobe Aviation: In focus due to USFDA developments and stake-sale chatter; tape-risk only, pending exchange confirmation

Top Laggards

• Kotak Mahindra Bank
• Bajaj Finance
• Wipro

Key Levels to Watch

• Nifty: Support 24,400 | Resistance 24,750
• Sensex: Support 79,500 | Resistance 80,500
• Bank Nifty: Critical support near 53,500

Quick Bytes (Global / Off-Radar)

Currency Corner: The rupee strengthened marginally to 87.64/USD, showing resilience despite tariff pressures.

Commodities Watch: Gold continues to hover near record levels around $3,415/oz, while Brent crude slipped to $67.48 (-0.73%) on demand concerns.

Global Futures: US futures show modest gains, suggesting near-term resilience ahead of key inflation data.

Deep Dive – Hot Topic of the Day

India–US Trade Tensions: The 50% Tariff Reality Check

The imposition of 50% tariffs on US exports marks a sharp escalation in trade tensions and places India among the highest-tariff regions in Asia. The move is closely tied to India’s continued procurement of Russian crude oil, with ripple effects across energy-linked and export-oriented sectors.

Investment Implications

• IT Services: Risk of margin pressure due to client budget tightening
• Pharmaceuticals: Export-focused companies may face incremental headwinds
• Energy: Potential beneficiary from discounted Russian oil imports

Peer Comparison: Unlike China’s gradual tariff escalation in earlier cycles, India faces an immediate high-rate impact, increasing the urgency for policy recalibration.

Investor Takeaway: Favor defensive, large-cap, domestically focused names while exercising caution on export-heavy mid-caps until clearer policy signals emerge.

What to Watch Today

• 9:15 AM: Market open – gap continuation vs. bounce attempt
• 11:00 AM: RBI weekly data, with focus on forex reserves
• 6:00 PM: US PCE inflation – key input for Fed policy outlook
• Evening: European close and US market cues
• Earnings Watch: IT management commentary on tariff exposure

Quote of the Day

“In the upcoming weeks, the market is likely to remain within a relatively narrow trading range as investors await Trump’s next moves.”
— Brooks, Economic Investment Research, ICG

Chart of the Day

Nifty 50 recent price action highlighting the tariff-driven selloff, with key support at 24,400 and resistance near 24,750.

Compliance Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Oorjita FinAI Services assumes no responsibility for investment outcomes based on this analysis.

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