December 4, 2025 | Rupee Breaches 90 as Nifty Extends Losing Streak, Meesho IPO Sees Strong Demand, and Dow Nears Record High

Good Morning & Market Recap

Indian equity markets extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session on December 3, with Nifty 50 closing at 25,986, down 46.20 points (-0.18%), and Sensex settling at 85,106.81, declining 31.46 points (-0.04%). The Indian rupee breached the psychological 90-mark against the US dollar for the first time, hitting a record low of 90.16, driven by persistent foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows and uncertainty over the US-India trade deal. Bank Nifty closed at 59,158.70, underperforming broader indices as PSU Bank stocks tumbled 3.07%.

What's Different Today: GIFT Nifty futures indicate a cautious start at 26,088-26,192 levels as of early morning hours, showing marginal stability after four days of decline. Global cues remain supportive with US markets rallying overnight—Dow Jones surged 408.44 points to 47,882.90 (+0.9%), its third-highest closing level ever, on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, domestic headwinds persist with FPIs withdrawing $933 million in just the first three days of December—more than double November's entire monthly outflow of $425 million.

Key Watch Factors Today: Investors will track pre-market GIFT Nifty movements ahead of NSE opening, monitor INR/USD volatility near 90 levels, and assess Day 2 subscription data for Meesho IPO which was subscribed 2.46 times on Day 1. Technical levels to watch: Nifty support at 25,900 and resistance at 26,200; a decisive break above 26,200 could open doors toward 26,300.

Global Markets Overnight

US equity markets closed higher on December 3, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 408.44 points (+0.9%) to settle at 47,882.90, positioning within 0.8% of its all-time high of 48,254.82. The S&P 500 advanced 0.30% to 6,849.72, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% amid mixed performance in technology stocks. The rally was fueled by ADP data showing a slight contraction of 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will proceed with another interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting.

Bitcoin extended gains, rising 2.1% to close near $93,000, continuing its recovery trajectory. Asian markets showed mixed sentiment overnight, with Nikkei and Hang Seng indices trading cautiously ahead of regional economic data releases.

Currency & Commodities

The Indian rupee hit a historic low of 90.16 against the US dollar on December 3, breaching the 90-mark for the first time amid persistent FPI selling and uncertainty surrounding US-India trade negotiations. The rupee closed around 90.21, reflecting weakness across the session and adding pressure on import-dependent sectors.

Gold prices surged to ₹1,30,140 per 10 grams (24K) in India as of December 4 morning, up ₹710 from the previous day, driven by safe-haven demand and rupee depreciation. Internationally, Comex Gold held firm near $3,044.90 per ounce (+0.74%), supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank accumulation. Titan fell 1.9% on fears that gold prices (₹1,30,140/10g) will dampen wedding season demand.

Crude Oil (Brent) traded at $62.75 per barrel as of December 3 close, down slightly from intraday highs, as geopolitical tensions in Ukraine weighed on demand sentiment. Analysts expect Brent to test resistance near $63.85 before potentially declining below $60.45 in the near term.

IPO Pipeline Intelligence

Meesho IPO enters Day 2 today with strong momentum, having achieved 2.46x subscription on December 3, the opening day. The ₹5,117 crore issue (approximately $604 million) comprises a fresh issue and an Offer for Sale (OFS) by existing shareholders, with a price band of ₹105-111 per share. Retail investors led the bidding on Day 1, while the grey market premium (GMP) surged 40%, indicating robust listing expectations. The IPO will close on December 5, with allotment expected on December 8 and listing scheduled for December 10 on BSE and NSE.

Oorjita Pre-Emptive Read

Meesho's e-commerce platform targeting tier-2 and tier-3 cities positions it uniquely against established players like Amazon and Flipkart, capitalizing on India's digital commerce boom in smaller towns. At the upper price band of ₹111, the company seeks a valuation of approximately ₹52,500 crore, which investors should compare against listed e-commerce and platform peers for relative valuation assessment. The strong Day 1 subscription, particularly from retail investors, reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory amid India's expanding internet penetration.

Key watch metric today: Monitor whether institutional investors (QIB segment with 75% reservation) match retail enthusiasm as subscription multiples build through Day 2.

Red Flags:

• E-commerce sector faces intense competition and margin pressure from established players
• Valuation premium requires sustained user growth and monetization improvement

Green Flags:

• Untapped tier-2/3 city market with significant growth runway
• Strong Day 1 retail response with 40% GMP surge indicates positive market sentiment

Timeline: Day 2 subscription (Today, Dec 4) → Closes Dec 5 → Allotment Dec 8 → Listing Dec 10.

Tech Pulse

• Tejas Networks surged over 4% after receiving ₹85 Cr under the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, validating its telecom equipment scaling.

• Adani Defence Expansion: The group acquired a 72.8% stake in Flight Simulation Technique Centre (FSTC) for ₹820 Cr, marking a strategic entry into pilot training and defence simulation.

• Sector Sentiment: Bullish for IT/Telecom Hardware. The weak Rupee (90+) acts as a direct margin booster for export-heavy tech counters like TCS and Infosys.

Deep Dive – Hot Topic of the Day

The "Rupee@90" Reality Check: The Indian Rupee has officially crossed the 90 per USD threshold.

• Why? Relentless FII outflows ($17B YTD) and anxiety over US trade tariffs.
• Who Wins? IT & Pharma. Every ₹1 depreciation typically adds ~30-50bps to the operating margins of export-heavy firms.
• Who Loses? FMCG & Paints. Imported raw materials (crude derivatives, palm oil) become costlier, squeezing margins.
• Actionable: Rotate capital from high-PE consumption stocks (like Titan, Asian Paints) into large-cap IT (TCS, HCL Tech) for the next quarter.

Market Movers & Watchlist

On December 3, sectoral performance was mixed with PSU Bank index plunging 3.07%, leading the losers, followed by Auto, Consumer Durables, Metals, Financial Services, FMCG, and Oil & Gas sectors. In contrast, Nifty IT and Media indices ended in green, providing support to benchmark indices. Max Healthcare and Bharat Electronics were the top Nifty losers, declining over 2% each.

Broader markets underperformed significantly, with Nifty MidCap 150 falling 0.98% and Nifty SmallCap 250 declining 0.71%, indicating risk-off sentiment among investors.

Stocks to Watch Today:

• IT stocks: Likely to remain in focus given overnight US tech resilience and rupee depreciation benefits
• Banking stocks: Monitor for further pressure as rupee weakness and FPI outflows continue
• Meesho IPO: Day 2 subscription status will drive sentiment in platform/e-commerce space

What to Watch Today

• Macro: Monitor INR/USD levels closely; further breach below 90 could trigger RBI intervention signals
• IPO: Meesho IPO Day 2 subscription data, particularly QIB and HNI segment interest
• Global: Federal Reserve commentary ahead of potential rate cut decision; watch for any policy signals
• FPI/DII Flows: December 3 provisional data showed continued FPI selling of $449 million; cumulative December outflow at $933 million
• Commodities: Gold at elevated levels (₹1,30,580/10g); crude oil stability near $62-63 range

Technical Levels for Today:

• Nifty 50: Support: 25,900, 25,750 | Resistance: 26,100, 26,200
• Bank Nifty: Support: 58,800 | Resistance: 59,600
• Key Note: Nifty must reclaim and sustain above 26,100 for any meaningful recovery toward 26,300; current lower highs and lower lows pattern indicates short-term weakness.

Quote of the Day

"The market is betting on rising order volumes and improving operational efficiency to drive future profitability. High valuations for loss-making firms can be volatile if growth slows."

— Ishan Tanna, Ashika Institutional Equity Research (on Meesho IPO).

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