February 13, 2026 | IT Rout Deepens as Global Tech Selloff Weighs, GIFT Nifty Signals Weak Open, and 26,000 Remains Elusive

Good Morning – Market Snapshot

Indian markets face a cautious start this Friday as GIFT Nifty futures trade at 25,677, down 174 points (-0.67%), signaling weakness ahead of the opening bell. Benchmark indices snapped their winning streak yesterday with Nifty closing at 25,807.20 (-146.65 points, -0.57%) and Sensex settling at 83,674.92 (-558.72 points, -0.66%) as IT stocks dragged sentiment lower. Global headwinds persist with Wall Street closing sharply lower—Dow shed 670 points (-1.34%) to 49,452, Nasdaq plunged 469 points (-2.04%) to 22,597, and S&P 500 dropped 108 points (-1.57%) to 6,832 amid tech sector sell-off. The day ahead features two SME IPO listings and the opening of Marushika Technology's ₹27 crore offering, adding stock-specific action to an otherwise subdued global backdrop.

Tech Pulse

Wall Street's tech rout extended Thursday as AI-related concerns and profit-booking sent the Nasdaq Composite tumbling over 2%, its worst single-day drop in weeks. Apple and AppLovin shares led decliners as investors questioned stretched valuations in the artificial intelligence space. Back home, the Nifty IT index slumped 1.8% yesterday, with heavyweights Infosys and HCL Tech sliding up to 4% each. The broader IT sector has now declined 12% year-to-date in 2026, making it the worst-performing sectoral index. Despite near-term weakness, analysts view the 25,700–25,800 zone as a consolidation base for Nifty, with the psychological 26,000 level remaining the key breakout threshold for sustainable upside.

Funding Radar

Idfy, a Mumbai-based regulatory technology startup, secured ₹476 crore ($52 million) in a funding round led by Neo Asset Management on February 12, marking one of the week's largest deals. The regtech player specializes in identity verification and compliance solutions for financial institutions. Between February 2–7, Indian startups raised $347 million across 23 deals, with Fractal Analytics leading at $137.7 million from anchor investors ahead of its IPO, followed by electric mobility platform Drivn securing $80 million from Nomura. Clean-label food brand The Whole Truth raised $51 million in Series D led by Sofina and Sauce.vc, while climate-tech startup Varaha secured $20 million in its Series B first tranche from WestBridge Capital. The AI and e-commerce sectors led deal flow with five transactions each, reflecting continued investor appetite despite broader market volatility.

IPO Pipeline Intelligence

Marushika Technology IPO opens today for a five-day subscription window (February 12–16), targeting ₹26.97 crore through a fresh issue of 23.05 lakh shares priced at ₹111–117. The NSE SME offering, with a minimum lot size of 1,200 shares (₹1.40 lakh investment), is scheduled for allotment on February 17 and listing on February 19. Lead managers Vivro Financial Services and Fedex Securities have structured this entirely as fresh capital, indicating growth funding rather than promoter exit.

Oorjita Pre-Emptive Read

The technology solutions provider enters a crowded SME segment during market volatility, with GIFT Nifty's 174-point gap-down signaling investor caution. SME IPOs typically see retail enthusiasm, but current IT sector weakness (down 12% YTD) may temper subscriptions. The ₹117 upper band translates to a post-issue market cap of approximately ₹31.47 crore—modest by industry standards. Investors should scrutinize client concentration risk and revenue quality from SEBI DRHP filings, particularly given the company's focus on IT services during a sector downturn.

Red Flags

Fresh capital deployment plan requires detailed scrutiny from DRHP.
SME platform disclosures often lack comprehensive peer-comparable financials.

Green Flags

NSE SME platform provides better liquidity than BSE SME.
Five-day subscription window allows informed decisions post-market stabilization.

Listings today include Biopol Chemicals and PAN HR Solutions debuting on NSE Emerge and BSE SME respectively after closing subscriptions on February 10. Both allotments were finalized February 11, with retail investors watching for listing gains versus issue prices.

Market Movers & Watchlist

Foreign Institutional Investors turned net sellers on February 12, offloading ₹853.68 crore in cash markets while Domestic Institutional Investors bought ₹1,410.89 crore, providing crucial support. Month-to-date (February 1–12), FIIs remain net buyers at ₹6,021.85 crore, though the pace has slowed sharply from early-month inflows of ₹5,236 crore on February 3 alone.

Sectoral divergence was stark—Nifty Auto surged 1.3% led by Eicher Motors, while Nifty Pharma and PSU Bank indices gained around 1% each, contrasting sharply with IT’s 1.8% decline. Bank Nifty closed at 60,739, forming a neutral hammer candle suggesting buying interest at lower levels, with PSU banks continuing to outperform private peers. Top gainers included auto and pharma stocks, while IT heavyweights Infosys (-4%), HCL Tech (-3.5%), and TCS faced continued selling pressure.

Quick Bytes

Asian markets show mixed signals this morning, with Nikkei marginally lower at -0.02% while Hang Seng drops 0.86%, reflecting spillover from Wall Street’s tech selloff. Gold holds near record highs at ₹15,839 per gram (24K), barely lower by ₹1, as safe-haven demand remains elevated amid global uncertainty. Bank Nifty’s 60,739 close marks the midpoint of its 52-week range, a technical inflection zone that often precedes directional breakouts.

Deep Dive – IT Sector’s Perfect Storm: Decoding the 12% YTD Correction

Nifty IT’s 12% decline in 2026 marks its worst start to a calendar year since the 2022 rate-hike cycle, underperforming every other sectoral benchmark. Yesterday’s 1.8% intraday crash—led by Infosys, HCL Tech, and TCS—underscores structural concerns beyond profit-booking. Three converging factors explain this sustained sell-off.

The Demand Drought

Accenture’s recent quarterly warning that discretionary spending remained limited with no material uptick in client budgets sent shockwaves through Indian IT valuations. The caution signals frozen corporate tech budgets, particularly in the US, which accounts for 60–65% of Indian IT revenues. HDFC Securities noted increased uncertainty around FY2026 due to renewed tariff threats and client paralysis. The mega-deal pipeline has weakened, impacting FY2026 revenue visibility, while Kotak Institutional Equities flagged challenges from nascent GenAI adoption disrupting traditional outsourcing.

The FII Exodus

Foreign investors have rotated out of IT into domestic-facing sectors such as financials, capital goods, and commodities. While FIIs remain net buyers month-to-date, IT has been excluded from sectoral allocations. Earnings disappointments from Infosys and Wipro compounded selling pressure. Despite trading 30% below 2021 peaks, analysts warn valuations may not fully reflect margin compression risks.

The Silver Lining: INR Depreciation & Valuation Reset

The rupee’s 3% year-to-date depreciation to 90.57 per USD offers a temporary revenue tailwind, boosting topline figures by 2–2.5%. However, RBI intervention limits further downside. Forward P/E multiples have compressed to 22–24x versus a five-year average of 28x, creating selective long-term opportunities in companies with strong cloud and cybersecurity exposure.

Investor takeaway: the IT correction is structural rather than cyclical. Recovery depends on US corporate budget clarity, stabilization in deal pipelines, and GenAI impact visibility. Near-term earnings remain muted, while a six- to twelve-month horizon favors selective accumulation in large-cap IT stocks.

What to Watch Today

Technical Levels for February 13

Nifty 50 support levels at 25,752, 25,705, and 25,654; resistance at 25,906, 25,945, and 26,000.
Bank Nifty support at 60,597 and 60,495; resistance at 60,864, 61,000, and 61,325.
Sensex support at 83,516 and 83,495; resistance at 83,802 and 84,461.

Key Events

No major domestic macro data releases.
US retail sales data scheduled in the evening IST.
No major Q3 earnings announcements.
Marushika Technology IPO opens; Biopol Chemicals and PAN HR Solutions list.
Monitor FII selling and DII buying trends.

Stocks to Watch

Eicher Motors for auto sector leadership.
Infosys and HCL Tech for stabilization attempts.
HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank at key support levels.
Biopol Chemicals and PAN HR Solutions for SME listing performance.
Kaynes Technology and CG Power for semiconductor theme developments.

Quote of the Day

“Four companies will commence commercial manufacturing of semiconductor chips in 2026, marking a significant milestone in India’s push for self-reliance in critical technology.”
— Ashwini Vaishnaw, Union Minister for Electronics and IT, February 2, 2026

Strategic Outlook

The market stands at a critical juncture with the 26,000 psychological level proving elusive despite recent gains. Sustained breakouts above this level could unlock higher targets, while failure to hold current supports may lead to consolidation within the 25,500–26,000 band. With GIFT Nifty indicating a gap-down opening, traders should monitor buying interest at lower levels, supported by DII flows and technical oversold conditions in IT stocks.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for educational purposes only. Markets are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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