February 24, 2026 | Tariff Whiplash Meets F&O Expiry: Gap-Down Risk Emerges as Global Selloff Counters Domestic Momentum

Good Morning — Recap & Theme

"Tariff Crossfire on Expiry Day"

India's Monday session closed positively as Nifty 50 settled at 25,713.00 (+141.75 points, +0.55%) and Sensex rallied approximately 350+ points, led by PSU banks and financial stocks. The immediate trigger was the US Supreme Court's decision to invalidate President Trump's earlier tariff framework, creating temporary relief.

However, that optimism was swiftly reversed on Wall Street overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed 822 points (-1.7%) to close at 48,804.06, while the Nasdaq shed 258 points (-1.1%) to 22,627.27. The S&P 500 closed at 6,837.75, down 71 points (-1.0%). The trigger: Trump announced a replacement 15% blanket global tariff, reigniting uncertainty. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.026%—its lowest since November—as bonds rallied in a flight to safety.

What's different today?

India now faces a catch-up selloff. GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,599.50 (-122.50 points, -0.48%) as of early morning IST—approximately 113 points below Monday's Nifty close—pointing to a cautious gap-down open around 25,560–25,590. With today also being F&O expiry, expect amplified swings at key strike prices (25,500 CE/PE, 25,600 CE/PE) and rollover pressure into March contracts.

Asian markets showed mixed responses: Hang Seng surged 2.40% to 27,048.19, shrugging off US weakness, while Nikkei 225 declined 1.12% to 56,825.70. South Korea's Kospi fell 1.1% after a record-breaking run.

Key watch factors today:

• F&O expiry dynamics — rollover costs, max pain levels, and directional bias post-3:00 PM
• Trump tariff clarity — any sectoral exemptions or India-specific negotiations
• FII/DII flows — Monday saw FII net buying of ₹3,550.66 crores vs DII net selling of ₹1,417.12 crores; reversal today would signal capitulation
• Global risk-off spillover — crude oil, INR, and bond yield movements

Tech Pulse

Semiconductor Mission 2.0: India's ₹40,000 Crore Bet on Full-Stack Sovereignty

Union Budget 2026 announced India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 with a ₹40,000 crore outlay under the expanded Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS). This follows ISM 1.0's success: 10 approved projects from Micron Technology, Tata Electronics, and others, representing cumulative investments of ₹1.60 lakh crore across six states.

What's new in ISM 2.0:

• Focus on industry-led research centres and training facilities
• Target: Develop full-stack Indian semiconductor IP—from design to equipment manufacturing
• Strategic shift from assembly/testing (ATMP) to upstream fab capabilities

Sectoral sentiment: The original ECMS attracted investment commitments at nearly twice its targets within months of launch in April 2025, demonstrating industry appetite. IndieSemiC CEO Nikul Shah noted that raising the outlay to ₹40,000 crore is "essential to ensure design-led companies can scale alongside manufacturing investments".

Market impact: Semiconductor and electronics stocks could see renewed interest. Watch Tata Electronics, Dixon Technologies, and design-focused mid-caps. However, monetisation timelines remain 3–5 years—this is a structural play, not a trading catalyst.

Actionable trigger: Any ISM 2.0 project approvals or MoU announcements (typically within 60 days of policy launch) could provide stock-specific momentum.

Global Tech: AI Infrastructure Funding Rebounds

Indian AI startups are attracting fresh institutional capital despite broader funding caution. Major VCs in India are lining up $300–500 million+ for AI investments, signaling confidence in strategic sectors. This aligns with a broader trend: India's startup funding jumped 668% week-on-week (Feb 13–19 vs Feb 6–12), led by deeptech and climate tech.

Funding Radar

Week of Feb 6–12, 2026: ₹2,279 Crore Across 30 Deals

India's private markets showed depth and diversity, with capital flowing into renewables, consumer brands, fintech, SaaS, and B2B commerce. The standout: sectoral spread—from infrastructure-scale clean energy to asset-light digital platforms.

Top 3 Deals:

1. Radiance Renewables Private Limited — ₹907 crores (09 Feb 2026)
   • Investors: Impact Fund Denmark, Netherlands Development Finance Company
   • Sector: Clean Energy Infrastructure
   • Context: Largest raise of the week; global development finance participation signals long-term bet on scalable renewable platforms. Likely earmarked for project expansion and balance-sheet strengthening as corporate green power demand accelerates.
2. Smartcoin Financials Private Limited (Olvy India) — ₹207 crores Series C (09 Feb 2026)
   • Investors: Fundamentum Partnership, SMBC Asia Rising Fund
   • Sector: Digital Credit & Fintech Infrastructure
   • Context: Continued momentum in lending stack expansion. Expected use: Deepen underwriting models and expand credit access across underbanked segments.
3. Pandorum Technologies Private Limited — ₹163 crores Series B (09 Feb 2026)
   • Investors: Anivya Ventures, Burman Family Holdings, Protons Corporate Services, Galactic Pharma India, LVT, Ashish Kacholia, Nobleast Advisory
   • Sector: Biotech & Deep Science
   • Context: Diverse investor mix combining strategic, family office, and market-linked capital suggests long-term conviction in R&D-led healthcare pipeline.

Sectoral ripple effects: Advanced Hardware & Technology saw highest deal count (4 deals, $17 million cumulative). Ace investor Ashish Kacholia emerged as most active with two investments—4baseCare and 1Buy.AI. Seed-stage funding slumped 40% week-on-week, with only three startups raising $12.9 million.

Week of Feb 13–19, 2026: Funding surged to $285.3 million across 17 deals, up 42% from preceding week. Notable raises included Spinny and Statiq, reflecting continued investor confidence in used-car platforms and EV charging infrastructure.

IPO Pipeline Intelligence

PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery IPO — Subscription Closes Today

PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery Limited IPO enters final day of subscription today (closes 24 Feb 2026).

Issue Details:

Parameter | Details
Issue Size | ₹40.50 crores (book-built issue)
Price Band | ₹81–85 per share
Lot Size | 150 shares
Dates | Anchor: 19 Feb | Retail: 20–24 Feb
Listing Date | Expected 27 Feb 2026
Lead Managers | Fedex Securities Limited, Integrated Enterprise India Limited

Business: Diamond jewellery manufacturer and retailer operating in Gujarat and Maharashtra. The company focuses on branded diamond jewellery with an omnichannel presence.

Subscription Status (As of 23 Feb evening — provisional):

• Overall subscription not yet disclosed; retail and HNI segments expected to drive demand
• Grey Market Premium (GMP): Data unavailable; caution advised given SME segment volatility

Oorjita Pre-Emptive Read:

Valuation Context: SME segment IPO with limited peer comparables in listed space. Kalyan Jewellers trades at ~35x P/E (₹500+ crore market cap), while Titan Company commands 70+ P/E. PNGS Reva's small scale (₹40 crores) limits institutional interest but offers retail participation.

Red Flags:

• SME platform listing — lower liquidity, higher volatility risk
• Limited financial disclosures in public domain; refer to DRHP for complete financials
• Diamond sector exposed to import duty fluctuations and rupee volatility

Green Flags:

• Omnichannel strategy aligns with jewellery sector digitization trend
• Gujarat-Maharashtra geography offers strong jewellery consumption base
• Branded diamond segment showing steady growth post-pandemic

Key Watch Metric Today: Final subscription numbers (especially retail category) and anchor allocation quality. Any subscription below 2x in retail segment would signal weak listing sentiment.

Timeline: Subscription closes today (24 Feb) → Allotment 26 Feb → Listing 27 Feb (expected).

Market Movers & Watchlist

Indian Indices — Technical Levels for Today

Nifty 50

• Previous Close: 25,713.00
• GIFT Nifty Indication: 25,599.50 (-113.50 points)
• Support Levels: 25,560 (gap-down open) | 25,500 (max pain) | 25,400 (50-day EMA)
• Resistance Levels: 25,750 | 25,850 | 26,000 (psychological)
• Expiry Context: Max pain around 25,500; heavy call writing at 25,600–25,700 suggests bears in control

Bank Nifty

• Previous Close: Data not disclosed in sources; implied ~56,200 based on historical trends
• Support: 55,800 | 55,500
• Resistance: 56,500 | 57,000
• Weekly Expiry Note: PSU banks outperformed Monday (+2–3%); private banks lagged. Rollover cost to March series elevated due to tariff uncertainty

Sectoral Heatmap — Monday's Outperformers

Based on Monday's session (21 Feb 2026):

• PSU Banks: Led the rally; watch State Bank of India (₹1,225.30, +0.76%), Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank
• Financials: ICICI Bank (₹1,398.20, +0.27%) showed resilience
• Defensives: FMCG and pharma likely to outperform if risk-off persists

Stocks to Watch Today (3–5 Names)

1. BPCL — Regulatory order disclosed on 21 Feb 2026 regarding past transactions; stock-specific overhang
2. IDFC First Bank — Merger/restructuring buzz; watch for regulatory filings
3. UPL — Agricultural chemicals space; technical breakout watch
4. Tata Electronics / Dixon Technologies — Semiconductor Mission 2.0 beneficiaries (structural play)
5. PNGS Reva — IPO subscription closes today; SME listing watch

Quick Bytes

Off-Radar Data Points

• FII Buying Streak Continues: Monday saw FII net inflow of ₹3,550.66 crores (Gross Buy: ₹14,694.34 cr | Gross Sell: ₹11,143.68 cr). This marks a reversal from recent selling pressure. However, DII net sold ₹1,417.12 crores—watch if this trend reverses today amid global risk-off.

• INR Resilience Tested: USD/INR closed at 90.9170 on 23 Feb (+0.21%), approaching the 91 handle. RBI reference rate for 20 Feb was 90.9518. Further tariff escalation could push INR toward 91.50–92.00 levels—last tested in January 2026 when it hit an all-time high of 92.29.

• Crude Volatility: Brent crude futures showing heightened volatility amid tariff concerns and Middle East geopolitical risks. India's crude import bill sensitive to moves above $85/barrel.

• Kospi Record Highs: South Korea's Kospi hit record 5,522 points before Monday's pullback. Tech sector outperformance driven by AI semiconductor demand—contrast with India's lagging IT sector.

Deep Dive — Hot Topic of the Day

Trump's Tariff Whiplash: What India Must Price In

The Overnight Reversal

In a span of 24 hours, Indian markets experienced a tariff-induced whipsaw. Monday's 350-point Sensex rally was built on the premise that the US Supreme Court had invalidated Trump's tariff framework. By Monday night (US time), Trump announced a replacement 15% blanket global tariff, sending Wall Street into a tailspin.

India's Tariff Timeline (2025–2026)

• August 2025: Trump imposed tariffs on India; sectoral breakdown included exemptions for specific categories
• February 2, 2026: Trump cut India tariffs from 50% to 18% after PM Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil
• February 23, 2026: New 15% blanket global tariff announced, overriding prior agreements

Sectoral Impact Analysis

Sector | Exposure | Impact Assessment
IT Services | High (60% US revenue) | Margin pressure; watch TCS, Infosys
Pharmaceuticals | Medium (40% US exports) | API costs rise; pass-through challenging
Textiles | High | Already facing 15%+ tariffs; incremental pain
Auto Components | Medium | OEM contracts renegotiation risk
Gems & Jewellery | Low-Medium | PNGS Reva IPO timing unfortunate

Validated Statistics:

• India's FY2025 goods exports to US: $77.5 billion (Economic Survey 2026)
• Trade buffer: India maintains 3–4 months of import cover; rupee depreciation acts as natural hedge
• IT sector contribution to GDP: 7.4%; tariffs unlikely to directly impact services, but regulatory/visa risks loom

Peer Comparison — How APAC Markets Are Pricing Risk

• China: Already factored in maximum tariff escalation; CSI 300 showing resilience
• Vietnam: High export dependence; Hanoi index down 3.2% over past week
• India: Nifty down 2.14% over four weeks despite Monday's rally; relatively defensive positioning

Actionable Investor Takeaway:

1. Hedge tariff risk via defensives: Pharma (domestic-focused), FMCG, utilities
2. Avoid high US-revenue stocks near expiry: IT majors, textile exporters
3. Watch INR as leading indicator: Break above 91.50 would signal FII risk-off acceleration
4. Structural opportunity: ISM 2.0 and electronics manufacturing offer medium-term hedges against supply-chain reshoring

Oorjita View: Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news. Once tariff framework stabilizes (even if unfavorable), risk premiums compress. Until then, expiry days like today will amplify volatility—stay nimble, size positions conservatively, and prioritize liquidity.

What to Watch Today

• Macro: No major RBI or government data releases scheduled; focus remains on global cues
• Earnings: Quarterly results season largely over; any delayed filings or restatements to watch
• IPO: PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery subscription closes today; final numbers post-5 PM
• Global: US markets closed overnight at lows; any Trump tariff clarification or Fed commentary would move sentiment
• FPI/DII Flows: Monday's FII net buy of ₹3,550.66 crores vs DII net sell of ₹1,417.12 crores—reversal today would signal capitulation
• F&O Expiry: Nifty 50 monthly and Bank Nifty weekly expiry; max pain analysis and rollover costs critical
• Crude & INR: Brent crude volatility and USD/INR testing 91 handle—watch for RBI intervention signals

Quote of the Day

"In a tariff-driven market, the only certainty is volatility. Position for range-bound chaos, not directional conviction."

— Market commentary, Bloomberg terminal, 23 February 2026, 10:47 PM EST

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Markets are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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