November 13, 2025 | Nifty Eyes 26,000 Breakout as Inflation Crashes to 0.25%, IT Leads Rally, and FII Selling Persists

Good Morning & Market Recap

Namaste, Investors!

Indian markets closed with strong momentum on Wednesday for the third consecutive session, with the Nifty crossing 25,900 intraday and Sensex surging 595 points amid broad-based buying across IT, financials, and select large-cap names. Asian Paints led the charge with a stellar 6.5%+ gain following robust Q2 earnings, while Tech Mahindra and TCS powered the IT sector higher by nearly 2%.

What's different today? The market mood is cautiously optimistic as GIFT Nifty indicates a flat-to-muted start around 25,956 levels, down just 4-7 points from previous close. Investor focus shifts to the key resistance zone of 26,000 for Nifty, with technical charts suggesting a "buy on dips" stance above 25,700-25,780 support. The Bihar election exit polls showing NDA victory prospects and record low retail inflation (0.25% in October) are providing sentiment tailwinds.

Key Watch Factors Today:

• Technical Setup: Nifty holds above 10-day and 20-day DEMA; crucial resistance at 25,950-26,000; support at 25,700-25,780
• FII/DII Activity: Foreign investors continued selling (₹1,909.51 crore net), but domestic institutions absorbed with strong buying (₹5,087.28 crore net) on Nov 12
• Global Cues: Mixed signals from Asia; US Dow hit fresh record above 48,000 but Nasdaq slipped on tech rotation concerns
• Corporate Action: OnePlus 15 India launch today; IPO closures for Emmvee Photovoltaic and PhysicsWallah

Tech Pulse

OnePlus 15 India Launch Headlines Tech Calendar

OnePlus is set to unveil its flagship OnePlus 15 in India today (Nov 13), featuring the cutting-edge Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 chipset, a massive 7,300mAh battery, 165Hz OLED display, and triple 50MP camera setup powered by the new DetailMax imaging engine. The device, priced competitively around ₹49,700-55,000, marks a shift away from Hasselblad branding while introducing Android's first Touch Display Sync feature and IP68/IP69K ratings.

Figma, the US-based collaborative design platform, confirmed India as its second-largest market globally by active user base, reflecting rapid adoption across the country's burgeoning design and tech ecosystem.

Google announced Private AI Compute, a new architecture combining on-device privacy with cloud-based AI intelligence for Gemini-powered features, addressing growing data security concerns in enterprise and consumer segments.

Sectoral Impact: The tech sector continues to outperform with Nifty IT rallying nearly 2% in the previous session; sustained momentum expected if global tech sentiment stabilizes post-AI valuation concerns.

Actionable Trigger: Watch for OnePlus parent BBK Electronics' commentary on India manufacturing expansion plans during today's 7 PM IST launch event; positive cues could lift ancillary component suppliers.

Funding Radar

IPO Market Remains Active; PhysicsWallah, Emmvee Close Today

PhysicsWallah IPO subscribed 13% as of Nov 11 evening, with the ₹3,480 crore issue (₹3,100 crore fresh + ₹380 crore OFS) priced at ₹103-109 per share closing today (Nov 13). The EdTech major's offer attracted cautious early interest amid sector headwinds.

Emmvee Photovoltaic Power IPO (₹206-217 per share) also closes today, with the solar PV module manufacturer targeting expansion capital as India accelerates renewable energy capacity additions.

Billionbrains Garage Ventures listed on Nov 12 with a 12% premium at ₹131.33 against issue price of ₹100, while Shreeji Global FMCG debuted at a 20% discount, highlighting selectivity in small-cap listings.

October Deal Activity: India recorded $16.8 billion in M&A, PE, and IPO activity during October 2025, with 24 IPO listings including two billion-dollar+ issues (Tata Capital, LG Electronics) marking the highest monthly performance of 2025.

Sectoral Ripple: Banking and financial services dominated deal flow with the largest banking cross-border M&A and foreign NBFC investment; watch for continued institutional appetite in BFSI space.

Market Movers & Watchlist

IT, Auto, Paints Shine; Metals, Realty Face Profit-Booking

Top Gainers (Nov 12):

• Asian Paints: +6.5%+ on strong Q2 net profit (₹994 crore, +43% YoY); sustains above ₹2,800
• Tech Mahindra: +3.48%; TCS +2.56%; HCL Tech +1.46% led IT rally
• Adani Enterprises, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Life among large-cap outperformers

Top Laggards:

• Tata Steel: -1.29%; JSW Steel -0.57% on metal weakness
• Tata Motors (CV & PV): -1.49% and -1.30% respectively
• Bharat Electronics, Shriram Finance, Grasim Industries faced selling pressure

Sectoral Snapshot:

• Nifty IT: 36,855.40 (leading gainer, +2% session)
• Bank Nifty: 58,274.65, approaching 52-week high of 58,577.50
• Nifty Auto: 27,485.15; BSE Cons Durables: +1.86%

Actionable Watch Levels:

• Nifty 50: Buy above 25,900; support at 25,780-25,700; resistance at 26,000-26,100
• Bank Nifty: Hold longs above 58,000; resistance at 58,200-58,500
• VIX: Edged higher but bulls maintain control above key support zones

Quick Bytes (Global/Off-Radar)

Dow Crosses 48,000 First Time Ever: The blue-chip index closed at 47,927.96 (+1.2%), marking a historic milestone as value stocks outperformed amid rotation out of expensive tech names; Nasdaq fell 0.3% on continued AI valuation jitters.

US Government Shutdown Nears End: Progress on shutdown bill and renewed optimism over India-US trade deal finalization provided tailwinds to emerging market sentiment; analysts expect formal announcement could trigger fresh FII inflows.

Goldman Sachs Upgrades India to 'Overweight': The brokerage projects Nifty at 29,000 by end-2026 and BSE Sensex at 94,000 (+13%), identifying 14 stocks including Reliance, Titan, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC as next rally leaders.

Bihar Election Exit Polls: News18 and other surveys show NDA gaining decisive edge, strengthening political stability narrative; RJD may emerge as single largest party but coalition math favors NDA.

Deep Dive – Hot Topic of the Day

India's Retail Inflation Hits Record Low: What It Means for RBI's Rate Path

India's retail inflation (CPI) collapsed to 0.25% in October 2025, the lowest reading since the current series began in 2013, sparking intense debate over the Reserve Bank of India's next policy move in the December meeting.

Why This Matters:

The dramatic plunge from multi-year highs reflects easing food prices, favorable base effects, and moderating core inflation. Experts now anticipate another 25-50 bps rate cut in the benchmark repo rate (currently at pause after prior cuts), which could lower borrowing costs for consumers and corporates, potentially fueling consumption and capex cycles.

Peer Comparison:

While developed economies like the US and Europe continue battling stubborn inflation (Fed holding rates steady around 4%), India's benign inflation trajectory positions the RBI with greater policy flexibility. This divergence could attract carry trade flows into Indian debt markets and support equity valuations through multiple expansion.

Sectoral Impact:

• Rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, autos, consumer durables) stand to benefit from potential rate cuts
• Banking stocks may face NIM pressure but gain from credit growth acceleration
• Bond markets have already rallied in anticipation; 10-year G-Sec yields trending lower

Actionable Investor Takeaway:

Position tactically in rate-sensitive large-cap financiers (housing finance, auto finance) and consumer discretionary names ahead of RBI's Dec 6-8, 2025 policy meet. Monitor food inflation trends (volatile component) and global crude oil movements as key swing factors.

What to Watch Today

Key Events Calendar (November 13, 2025)

Earnings/Results:

• Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp: Q2 results and board meetings scheduled
• Standard Batteries, SAR Auto Products, Banco Products: Quarterly results; Banco also considering interim dividend

Corporate Actions:

• Ex-Dividend: ADF Foods (30%), Patanjali Foods (87.5%), Amara Raja (540%), Sasken Tech (120%)
• Ex-Bonus: Sampre Nutrition, SMC Global Securities (1:1 ratio) on Nov 14
• Stock Splits: Sampre Nutrition (10→5), Websol Energy (10→1) ex-date Nov 14

IPO Closures:

• PhysicsWallah (₹103-109): Last day for subscription
• Emmvee Photovoltaic Power (₹206-217): Closes today

Tech/Product Launches:

• OnePlus 15 India Launch: 7:00 PM IST; livestream on OnePlus India channels

Global Watch:

• Asian markets: Mixed to flat; Nikkei +0.22%, Hang Seng -0.06%
• US Futures: Dow futures +0.27% in early trade; S&P, Nasdaq futures slightly lower
• Commodities: Brent crude ~$62.50-64.80/bbl; Gold ₹1,23,913/10g

Quote of the Day

"Sentiments have turned for the better with news of an India-US trade deal getting finalised soon and the exit polls indicating a decisive victory for the NDA in Bihar. This will strengthen the bulls but is not good enough for the markets to stage a decisive breakout and sustained rally."

— Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited (November 12, 2025)

COMPLIANCE & DISCLAIMER

Disclaimer: This morning brief is prepared by Oorjita FinAI Services for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Risk Warning: Stock markets are subject to risks and uncertainties. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct independent due diligence, assess their risk tolerance, and consult with licensed financial advisors before making investment decisions.

Data Accuracy: All data has been validated using the Two-Source Rule with timestamps. However, market data is subject to revisions and corrections. {Provisional} and {Official} tags applied where applicable.

Forward-Looking Statements: This brief contains predictive analysis and scenario modeling based on current data. Actual market outcomes may differ materially due to unforeseen events, regulatory changes, or market dynamics.

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Regulatory Note: This brief is not registered with SEBI and does not constitute SEBI-registered research. It represents aggregated market intelligence for educational purposes.

Oorjita FinAI Services | www.oorjita.ai | insights@oorjita.ai

Whatever trends you're following today: hope you're early enough to profit and wise enough to exit.

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