November 18, 2025 | FII Buying Returns, Bank Nifty Breakout, Nvidia Caution, and India’s Inflation Shock

Good Morning & Market Recap

Good morning, investors! Indian markets closed their sixth consecutive winning session yesterday, with the Nifty reclaiming the psychological 26,000 mark after 12 sessions. However, GIFT Nifty futures suggest a cautious start this morning, trading at 26,006-26,008, down 36-54 points from yesterday's close.

What's different today? While domestic sentiment remains constructive with FIIs turning net buyers after weeks of selling, global headwinds from Wall Street's Monday decline ahead of Nvidia's crucial earnings (Wednesday) may temper early enthusiasm. The key watch factor is whether India's domestic institutional buying (Rs 1,466 crore yesterday) can offset any FII caution.

Key watch factors:

• PhysicsWallah IPO listing debut on NSE/BSE
• Bengaluru Tech Summit 2025 kicks off with Karnataka unveiling new IT, startup, and space-tech policies
• Nvidia earnings on November 19 (global AI trade bellwether)
• Bank Nifty momentum after breaching 59,000 for the first time

Tech Pulse

Karnataka Unveils KEO: India's First Ultra-Affordable AI PC

A day before the Bengaluru Tech Summit 2025, Karnataka government unveiled KEO, India's first ultra-affordable AI-ready computer designed to bridge the state's digital access gap. The 28th edition of the summit, themed 'Futurise', begins today at Bangalore International Exhibition Centre with over 10,000 innovators, featuring 10 focused tracks including DeepTech, Semiconductors, and Defence & SpaceTech.

Policy Announcements Expected: Karnataka will unveil its SpaceTech policy, Startup Policy 3.0, and new Centres of Excellence in quantum and electronics, backed by an initial Rs 600 crore DeepTech commitment.

HCLTech-Nvidia Physical AI Lab Goes Live

HCLTech partnered with Nvidia to launch a Santa Clara lab helping global enterprises build, test, and scale physical AI and robotics solutions for next-gen industrial automation. This comes as Nvidia prepares to report Q3 FY26 earnings on Wednesday, with the AI chip giant's performance set to influence global tech sentiment.

Electronics Manufacturing Push

The Indian government cleared 17 projects to boost production of electronic components, with the second set of announcements pushing total cleared projects to Rs 12,704 crore out of a Rs 1.15 lakh crore total expected outlay.

Sector Sentiment Impact: Nifty IT has remained resilient despite global tech weakness, with domestic policy support and AI infrastructure investments providing a cushion.

Actionable Trigger: Watch for Karnataka policy details during today's summit inauguration by CM Siddaramaiah; semiconductor and DeepTech stocks may react positively to concrete investment commitments.

Funding Radar

PhysicsWallah IPO Lists Today

The edtech platform makes its Dalal Street debut today after raising Rs 3,480.71 crore through its IPO (fresh issue of Rs 3,100.71 crore + OFS of Rs 380 crore at Rs 103-109 per share). Grey market premium (GMP) indicates a modest 6.42% premium at Rs 116 versus issue price of Rs 109.

Allotment: Finalized on November 14, 2025; shares credited on November 17.

November's Rs 76,000 Crore IPO Surge

November 2025 is witnessing an unprecedented IPO wave with over Rs 76,000 crore of issues lined up, spanning 15-20 IPOs across consumer goods, infrastructure, renewable energy, finance, and technology. Major upcoming listings include:

• Groww: Rs 7,000 crore (online brokerage)
• Lenskart: Rs 8,000 crore (eyewear retail)
• Pine Labs: Rs 5,800 crore (fintech/merchant solutions)

Mutual Funds' October IPO Bet

Mutual funds pumped over Rs 13,527 crore into 10 IPOs in October 2025, signaling institutional confidence in India's primary market momentum.

Sectoral Ripple Effects: The IPO surge reflects renewed investor appetite and strong corporate confidence, supported by positive macroeconomic factors and a robust equity ecosystem. EdTech and fintech sectors are particularly active, positioning for India's digital-first economy.

Market Movers & Watchlist

Yesterday's Action (November 17, 2025)

Nifty 50: 26,013.45 (+103.40, +0.40%)
Sensex: 84,950.95 (+388.17, +0.46%)

Sectoral Performance: All sectoral indices closed in green, led by:

• Nifty PSU Bank: +1.09%
• Nifty Auto: +0.85%
• Nifty Consumer Durables: +0.83%
• Nifty Private Bank: +0.79%

Top Gainers: Eternal (+1.93%), Tata Consumer Products (+1.83%), Max Healthcare (+1.73%), Eicher Motors (+1.70%), Maruti Suzuki (+1.31%)

Top Losers: Tata Motors PV (-4.74%), UltraTech Cement (-0.83%), Jio Financial Services (-0.78%), Asian Paints (-0.72%)

Bank Nifty Milestone

Bank Nifty tested the 59,000 mark for the first time, rising 0.76% after a gap-up opening and forming a bullish candle on the daily chart. Bajaj Broking noted, "The index registered a clean breakout from recent consolidation, trading well above important moving averages on all timeframes".

Support: 58,600-58,000
Resistance: 58,900-59,500

Nifty 50 Technical Setup

Support Zone: 25,800-25,850 (likely to attract buyers on any pullback)
Resistance Targets: 26,100 (immediate), 26,300 (extended)
Trend: Bullish candle formation with higher highs and higher lows; uptrend remains strong

Market Breadth

• Advances: 1,862
• Declines: 2,068
• Unchanged: 155
• 52-week highs: 108 stocks
• 52-week lows: 145 stocks
• Upper circuits: 98
• Lower circuits: 110
• Nifty Midcap 100: 61,180.50 (+0.73%, new record close)
• Nifty Smallcap 100: 18,347.60 (+0.52%)
• India VIX: 11.79 (-1.25%)

Actionable Watch Levels:

• Nifty: Buy on dips to 25,850 zone; exit longs below 25,800; upside targets 26,100/26,300
• Bank Nifty: Hold above 58,600 for 59,500 target; stop-loss at 58,000

Quick Bytes (Global/Off-Radar)

Wall Street Wobbles Ahead of Nvidia

U.S. stocks retreated sharply on Monday, with the Dow down 557 points (-1.18%), S&P 500 falling 0.92%, and Nasdaq slipping 0.84%. Nvidia declined 1.8% while Super Micro Computer dropped 6.4%, weighing on AI-driven tech stocks ahead of Nvidia's Wednesday earnings.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq is on pace to snap its seven-month win streak, while the S&P 500 is down 2.5% in November after rallying for six straight months.

Alphabet Leads Gainers

Within the Nasdaq 100, the biggest gainer on November 17 was Alphabet-A (GOOGL), which climbed 3.11% to close at $285.02.

India Skills Report 2026

India's employability rose to 56.35% in 2026 from 54.81% in 2025, with women surpassing men for the first time in five years. The report projects India's gig workforce will reach 23.5 million by 2030, with the country expected to supply a surplus of 45 million skilled professionals to address global labor shortages of 85 million.

Deep Dive – India's IPO Boom: Signal or Noise?

Deep Dive Topic: India's Inflation Shock – 0.25% Print Opens Door to RBI Rate Cut Bonanza

Why This Matters Today

India's retail inflation collapsed to 0.25% in October 2025—the lowest since the CPI series began in 2013—setting up a potential 25-50 bps rate cut runway before year-end and reshaping sector rotation strategies for 2026.

Key Data Points (Validated):

• Headline CPI: 0.25% (Oct 2025) vs 1.44% (Sep 2025) vs 6.21% (Oct 2024)
• Food Inflation: -5.02% (negative for first time in years) vs -2.28% in September
• Core Inflation: 4.33%, slightly elevated due to gold/silver price surge
• Fuel & Light: 1.98%
• Transport: 0.94%
• Health: 3.86%
• FY26 Average CPI: 1.9% YTD vs RBI's 2.6% forecast

What Drove the Collapse:

• GST Rate Cuts: Full-month impact of late-September GST reductions across consumer goods
• Favourable Base Effect: Oct 2024's 6.21% high creates statistical tailwind
• Food Price Crash: Oils/fats, vegetables, fruits, eggs, cereals all deflated sharply
• Stable Commodity Prices: Benign crude oil and global commodity environment

RBI Policy Implications:

• Rate Cut Probability: Markets pricing 25-50 bps cut at December 2025 policy
• Repo Rate: Currently at 5.5%; inflation averaging 1.9% creates ~350 bps real rate cushion
• Governor Malhotra's Stance: "Overall inflation outlook has turned even more benign... provides room for easing"
• RBI Inflation Forecast: Projects 1.8% for Oct-Dec 2025 before rising to 4% by early 2026 as base normalizes

Investor Positioning Playbook

Rate-Sensitive Winners:

• Banks & NBFCs
• Real Estate & Housing Finance
• Auto & Durables

Caution Zones:

• FMCG
• Defensive High-Yielders

The Disinflation Risk

Some economists flag this may mark the trough in inflation; festive-linked retail sales surge makes it difficult to gauge sustainable demand. If inflation rebounds sharply by Q1 2026, RBI's rate-cut window may shut faster than expected.

What to Watch Today

Key Events – November 18, 2025

• PhysicsWallah IPO Listing
• Bengaluru Tech Summit 2025
• RBI Auction
• Global Watch: Asian markets cautious ahead of Nvidia earnings

Macro Calendar

• Thursday, Nov 20: Infrastructure Output YoY
• Friday, Nov 21: HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash; HSBC Composite PMI Flash
• Wednesday, Nov 19: Nvidia Q3 FY26 earnings

Quote of the Day

"Karnataka is strategically focusing on DeepTech for the next decade, with an initial commitment of Rs 600 crore. This edition will feature the Future Makers Conclave, a high-energy gathering of over 10,000 innovators, industry leaders, students and entrepreneurs."

— N Manjula, Secretary, Department of Electronics, IT, Biotechnology, and Science & Technology, Karnataka Government

Key Insight: Heavy call writing at 26,000 (1.5 crore OI) and put writing at 25,900 (1.5 crore OI) defines the 25,900-26,000 battleground zone - a breakout above 26,100 (call base resistance) opens the path to 26,300 on sustained momentum

Oorjita FinAI Services

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Whatever trends you're following today: hope you're early enough to profit and wise enough to exit.

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