October 16, 2025 | Fed Dovish Signals, IT Earnings in Focus, and Risk-On Momentum

Good Morning & Market Recap

Indian markets snapped a two-day losing streak with broad-based buying on Wednesday, as the Nifty 50 surged 0.71% to close at 25,323.55 and the Sensex gained 0.70% to settle at 82,605.43. The rally was driven by dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding interest rate pauses and strong US bank earnings that lifted global sentiment.

Realty, Power, and PSU Bank sectors led the charge with gains of 1–3%, while broader indices showed renewed strength with Midcap 100 advancing 1.11% and Smallcap 100 gaining 0.82%.

What’s different today?
GIFT Nifty futures signal a positive opening at 25,447–25,464, up 40–45 points, suggesting momentum continuation toward the crucial 25,500 resistance level.

Asian markets are trading in the green, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.95%, South Korea’s Kospi climbing 1.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 advancing 0.16%.

Key watch factors:
Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers after recent selling, purchasing ₹161.84 crore, while DIIs remained aggressive with ₹4,492.26 crore of net buying on October 15. Markets will track ongoing US–China trade tensions, UK GDP data, US jobless claims, and domestic FDI and M3 money supply data.

Tech Pulse

US Chip Rally Boosts Tech Sentiment
US chipmakers surged overnight after ASML exceeded third-quarter expectations for orders and operating income, with ASML’s US-listed shares jumping 4.4%. Broadcom, Intel, and AMD posted strong gains, propelling the Nasdaq up 0.66%, signaling positive spillover effects for Indian semiconductor and tech stocks.

BlackRock’s $40 Billion Data Center Play
A consortium led by BlackRock announced plans to acquire a major privately owned data center operator for $40 billion (including debt), underscoring massive institutional investment flowing into AI infrastructure. This validates the secular growth trend in data center demand driven by AI adoption, benefiting Indian IT services providers with cloud and infrastructure practices.

Actionable Trigger
Watch Infosys and Wipro Q2 results post-market today (October 16). Key focus areas include large deal pipelines, BFSI commentary, margin pressures from deal ramp-ups, and Q3FY26 guidance. Infosys is expected to post moderate revenue growth, while Wipro may report flat sequential growth in constant currency terms.

Funding Radar

PropTech – HouseEazy Raises ₹150 Crore
Real estate technology platform HouseEazy raised ₹150 crore in Series B funding led by Accel, Chiratae Ventures, and Antler to expand its property transaction platform and enhance technology capabilities.

EdTech – SpeakX Raises $16 Million
AI-based language learning platform SpeakX raised $16 million in Series B funding from WestBridge Capital and Elevation Capital, highlighting continued investor appetite for education technology despite sector consolidation.

Agritech & Logistics Momentum
Two Brothers Organic Farms raised ₹110 crore in Series B from 360 One Asset and Rainmatter Investments, while drone logistics startup Airbound secured $8.65 million in seed funding.

The diversity of sectors—from organic foods to drone delivery—signals healthy early-stage capital deployment across multiple high-growth verticals.

Market Movers & Watchlist

Banking Sector Mixed on Earnings
Axis Bank shares will be in focus after reporting a 26% decline in Q2 net profit to ₹5,090 crore, impacted by a one-time standard asset provision following RBI inspection advisory. Management commentary remained constructive on GST cuts and CRR reductions supporting retail disbursements.

HDB Financial Services reported a marginal 2% profit decline to ₹581 crore, while its loan book grew 13% YoY to ₹1.11 lakh crore.

Sectoral Heatmap

• Realty: +3%
• Power: +2%
• Consumer Durables: +1–2%
• PSU Banks: +1–2%
• Metals & Telecom: +1–2%
• Media: Only sector to close in the red

Stocks to Watch Today
Infosys, Wipro, LTIMindtree, Nestle India, Jio Financial Services, Waaree Energies, JSW Infrastructure, Metro Brands (Q2FY26 results).

Actionable Levels

• Nifty support: 25,200
• Nifty resistance: 25,500
  A breakout could trigger momentum toward the September swing zone.

Quick Bytes (Global / Off-Radar)

• Gold hit fresh record highs at $4,220.81/oz, up 56.69% YoY amid geopolitical risk and trade tensions.
• Crude oil remains weak with WTI at $58.27/bbl and Brent near $62.3/bbl, reflecting demand concerns.
• US banks rallied on strong Q3 earnings, pushing S&P 500 earnings growth expectations to 9.2%.
• US–China trade tensions escalated with rare earth export restrictions and renewed tariff threats.

When Brent sits near the low-60s and INR remains stable, domestic cyclicals—banks, autos, realty—typically enjoy multi-day tailwinds unless oil spikes or the rupee weakens.

Deep Dive – India’s IT Services at an Inflection Point

With Infosys and Wipro reporting Q2FY26 results today, India’s IT sector faces a critical earnings test amid mixed client spending signals.

Analysts expect:

• Infosys: Moderate sequential growth (1.5–2% CC) supported by large deal wins
• Wipro: Flat growth as deal ramp-up costs pressure margins

Key investor focus areas include:

1. Large deal TCV and pipeline visibility
2. Margin sustainability amid wage and visa costs
3. Commentary on AI-led opportunities versus traditional service headwinds

Stocks trading at 20–25x forward earnings require sustained deal momentum to justify valuations.

What to Watch Today

Earnings Calendar
Infosys (post-market), Wipro (post-market), LTIMindtree, Nestle India, Eternal, Jio Financial Services, Waaree Energies, JSW Infrastructure, Metro Brands, Indian Bank.

IPO Activity
Canara Robeco Asset Management Co. and Rubicon Research debut today; Midwest IPO enters Day 2.

Economic Data
India: FDI data, M3 money supply
UK: GDP, industrial production, trade
US: Weekly jobless claims

Derivatives
Weekly Sensex expiry today—expect elevated volatility.

Global Cues
US–China trade rhetoric, US earnings season, and Asian market follow-through.

Quote of the Day

“We are positive about the recent GST cuts and the CRR cut flowing through the banking system. We are seeing some positive signs on retail disbursements, and we have already demonstrated strong corporate loan growth.”
— Amitabh Chaudhry, MD & CEO, Axis Bank (October 15, 2025)

Compliance Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data is sourced from multiple verified platforms and cross-validated as per editorial standards. Investors should conduct independent research and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions. Oorjita FinAI Services is not liable for any investment decisions based on this content. Markets are subject to volatility and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Whatever trends you're following today: hope you're early enough to profit and wise enough to exit.

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