September 29, 2025 | Pharma Tariffs, IPO Momentum, and Early Signs of Stabilisation

Market Prabhat – Morning Market

Good morning. Last week was defined by a significant market correction, driven by relentless FII selling and global policy concerns. However, early indicators this morning suggest a potential shift in sentiment. Here’s your validated briefing on what’s moving the markets today.

Good Morning & Market Recap

After a brutal week that saw the Nifty 50 fall 4.1% and close below the critical 24,700 mark for the sixth straight session, today offers a glimmer of hope.

Overnight Highlights
• Indian indices closed deep in the red on Friday, with the Nifty 50 at 24,654.70 (-0.95%) and the Sensex at 80,426.46 (-0.90%).
• Bank Nifty was hit particularly hard, closing at 54,389.35 (-1.07%).
• Selling was broad-based, triggered by concerns over US tariff policies targeting the Indian pharmaceutical sector.

What’s Different Today?
GIFT Nifty futures are trading in the green at 24,809.00 (as of 7:07 AM IST), suggesting a positive opening for Indian markets. This is supported by positive cues from US futures, with Dow and Nasdaq futures trading higher. Oil has slipped below $70, offering a small tailwind, while gold remains near record highs as a risk hedge. INR remains in focus heading into RBI week, with bias still fragile.

Key Watch Factors
• Deadline for 17 multinational drugmakers to comply with US drug price policy
• Potential volatility in the pharma sector
• FII activity after over ₹30,000 crore of equity selling in September
• Tariff overhang from proposed US 100% tariff on branded drugs impacting Nifty Pharma sentiment

Tech Pulse

The technology sector remains a hub of strategic activity despite broader market volatility.

Apple Deepens India Roots
Apple has expanded its Indian supply chain to nearly 45 companies, including local component manufacturers, creating approximately 350,000 jobs. This move reflects a long-term strategic commitment to India amid geopolitical shifts.

India’s Semiconductor Push
The government’s focus on building a domestic semiconductor ecosystem continues to gain traction, aiming to reduce import dependency and position India as a global electronics manufacturing hub.

Actionable Trigger
Ancillary component manufacturers linked to Apple’s supply chain expansion remain on watch. Regulatory announcements related to the PLI scheme for electronics and semiconductors will be key triggers.

Funding Radar

The primary market remains active, offering a counter-narrative to recent weakness in secondary markets.

Mega IPO Week
The market is set to see 21 new IPOs this week. The WeWork India IPO is the highlight, targeting ₹3,000 crore with a price band of ₹615–₹648 per share.

New Listings & Openings
Atlanta Electricals and Ganesh Consumer Products will debut today. Six SME IPOs, including Chiraharit and Suba Hotels, will also open for subscription.

Sectoral Impact
A strong IPO pipeline, particularly in real estate and consumer sectors, signals healthy investor appetite for new growth stories and may redirect liquidity into primary markets.

Market Movers & Watchlist

Pharmaceuticals
The pharma sector is on high alert. The Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance has responded to US tariff threats, stating that such a move would jeopardize America’s drug security. Stocks such as Zydus Life, Sun Pharma, and Lupin remain in focus as the policy deadline hits today. Tariff overhang suggests underperformance on spikes until clarity on implementation timelines emerges.

Banking
HDFC Bank remains on the watchlist due to oversold conditions. Broader banking sector performance is critical after Bank Nifty broke its 100-day EMA last week.

Reliance Industries
The stock showed resilience last week. With crude prices firm, watch movement around the ₹2,850 technical support level.

IT
Oversold bounces are possible, though follow-through depends on order flow and pricing signals.

Banks – Key Levels
Bank Nifty is near the 54,000 support cluster. Watch the 54,000–54,100 zone for holds, with breakdown risk toward 53,700–53,800.

Deep Dive – Pharma’s Moment of Truth

The US tariff threat on Indian pharmaceuticals remains the dominant narrative. Last week’s market decline was a direct reaction to the announcement of steep tariffs. Since then, the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance has taken a firm stand, arguing that India’s generic drug supply is critical to the US healthcare system and that tariffs would be unwise.

Today’s compliance deadline sets up a high-stakes geopolitical and economic standoff. The outcome will determine not only the future of India’s $25 billion pharma export industry but also the resilience of a sector long viewed as defensive.

Investor Takeaways
• Underweight names with over 35% exposure to US branded or patented products
• Prefer diversified API and CRAMS players
• Weaker INR offers partial cushion, but FDA and channel risks remain
• Accumulate diversified CRAMS on 10–15% drawdowns
• Avoid binary US price-controlled exposures until rule clarity emerges

What to Watch Today

• Auto sales data for September (from October 1)
• IPO debuts of Atlanta Electricals and Ganesh Consumer Products
• Global market reaction to positive US futures and Asian cues
• Pharma sector developments related to US tariff decisions

Chart of the Day

FII vs DII weekly flows (Sep 21–27):
FII: –₹19,570 crore
DII: +₹17,411 crore

Quote of the Day

“India is expected to continue to dominate the global technology services market driven by the availability of massive tech and engineering talent, as well as high-quality digital transformation impact on global clients.”
— Raja Lahiri, Partner and Technology Industry Leader, Grant Thornton Bharat

Quick Bytes (Global / Off-Radar)

• US shutdown risk may delay key data releases, keeping event volatility elevated
• Gold remains a crowded safety trade; real-rate moves could trigger sharp unwinds

Compliance Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data is sourced from multiple verified platforms and cross-validated as per editorial standards. Investors should conduct independent research and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions. Oorjita FinAI Services is not liable for investment decisions based on this content. Markets are subject to volatility, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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