September 30, 2025 | Expiry Volatility, RBI Watch, and Funding Signals

Good Morning & Market Recap

Indian equity markets face the monthly F&O expiry after extending their losing streak to seven consecutive sessions. The Nifty 50 closed marginally lower, while the Sensex also ended in the red. Markets remain cautiously positioned ahead of the RBI MPC policy outcome scheduled for Wednesday, with most analysts expecting a status quo despite calls for a rate cut from SBI Research. GIFT Nifty signals a flat start, pointing to muted sentiment at the open.

Overnight, US equities closed higher, while gold touched fresh record highs and crude oil eased. The global tone is being driven by US shutdown risks and shifting rate-cut expectations. With the RBI policy approaching, the combination of strong gold prices and softer oil reflects a defensive tilt for Indian markets.

Tech Pulse

Global technology stocks led gains overnight, with semiconductor names outperforming as shutdown concerns eased in the near term. In India, IT stocks were mixed, caught between global tech optimism and domestic profit-taking. Sentiment remains neutral to mildly positive, contingent on stability in US futures.

Key developments in the tech and startup ecosystem included continued resilience in Indian startup funding despite an overall slowdown, Japan-based UNLEASH Capital closing a dedicated fintech fund, and sustained interest in B2B software following a major SaaS platform achieving unicorn status.

Regulatory action remained in focus as the RBI directed a BNPL startup to cease payment operations, while large funding discussions in ride-hailing and quick-commerce pointed to ongoing consolidation and business model shifts.

Actionable Trigger: Monitor Nasdaq futures through the European session, as stability there may support Indian IT sentiment.

Funding Radar

Startup funding activity remained steady, with enterprise applications, retail, and transportation emerging as leading sectors. Although total funding volumes declined year-on-year, median deal sizes increased sharply, signaling a quality-focused investment approach.

India added new unicorns during the year, reinforcing the maturity of the ecosystem, with several companies already achieving exits through IPOs or acquisitions. Bengaluru continued to dominate funding share, followed by Delhi, underscoring the concentration of capital in major tech hubs.

Market Movers & Watchlist

Markets are approaching critical technical levels ahead of expiry. The Nifty is holding near key support zones, while Bank Nifty formed an indecisive pattern, reflecting uncertainty among traders.

Resistance levels remain overhead for both indices, with volatility expected to rise during the expiry session. Sector-wise, banks, IT, and rate-sensitive stocks remain in focus, while broader participation is likely to remain selective.

Watch Levels:

• Nifty: Support near lower consolidation zones, resistance in the upper range
• Bank Nifty: Key support below current levels, resistance near recent swing highs

Quick Bytes (Global / Off-Radar)

Gold prices strengthened further on safe-haven demand, while crude oil eased as global supply concerns moderated. US markets advanced on renewed interest in AI-linked stocks. Globally, inflation and growth data continue to influence central bank expectations.

Deep Dive – RBI’s Rate Cut Dilemma

The RBI faces a complex policy decision as its MPC meeting concludes this week. While calls for a rate cut are being made on the basis of benign inflation trends and growth support, strong recent GDP data and potential post-festive inflation pressures complicate the outlook.

A surprise policy move could trigger short-covering in interest-sensitive sectors, while a status-quo outcome may extend the current consolidation phase in equities.

Investor Takeaway: Interest-sensitive sectors may react sharply to any deviation from expectations, while continued policy caution could reinforce range-bound market behavior.

What to Watch Today

• Monthly F&O expiry and associated volatility
• Index behavior near key support and resistance levels
• FII and DII flow data ahead of quarter-end rebalancing
• Global cues from US markets and commodity prices

Quote of the Day

“The market is showing signs of maturity, with rising acquisitions, steady IPO activity, and sustained unicorn creation offering balanced exits for founders and investors.”
— Neha Singh, Co-Founder, Tracxn

Compliance & Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data is sourced from verified platforms and cross-validated as per editorial standards. Investors should conduct independent research and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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