August 22, 2025 | Nifty Steady Above 25k Ahead of Jackson Hole

Introduction

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Good morning, investors! Markets are heating up on fresh catalysts and under-the-radar moves. The Niftyis holding above 25,000 after a six-day rally—but market wisdom suggests calm before a Powell storm. As Jackson Hole approaches, investor focus tightens around subtle signals, not headlines.

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World & Indian Economy: Last 24 Hours Only

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• India’s economic boom hits record stride in August: Private sector activity soared, as HSBC’s composite PMI surged to 65.2, the highest since the survey began (Dec 2005). Services and manufacturing both accelerated, fueling the sharpest price hikes in over a decade. Firms rapidly increased output charges, which may force the RBI to hold policy rates for longer—keep watch on inflation/headline risk.

• GDP Nowcast: Q1 FY26 GDP likely grew 6.8-7%, beating RBI’s estimate of 6.5%. SBI models peg real expansion at 6.9%. The kicker? Medium-run projections suggest persistence, but FY26 may slow to 6.3%—watch for sector rotation if growth expectations shift.[2]

• Global pulse: Asia drives global trade momentum (export growth now seen at 4.9% in ’25), while the WTO flags significant risks for 2026 given fresh tariff hikes. Europe’s moderate uptick is offset by weak services; ECB rate cuts continue even as inflation threatens a reversal. US–China trade truce extended, providing short-term relief but keeping uncertainty in the mix.

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What’s shifting vs. yesterday?

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• From euphoric rally anticipation, the mood shifts to defensive caution—especially as elevated valuations collide with external event risks.

• Gem Aromatics has emerged from the IPO shadows with strong pre-listing premium.

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Tech Pulse: Today’s Top Tech Stories

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• Digital India leaps forward :

Goa hosts the 18th Digital Transformation Conclave today; policymakers focus on AI, data and e-Governance. Anticipate immediate moves in techinfrastructure and digital service stocks as policy announcements hit.

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• Sector rotations :

‍o Happiest Minds soared nearly 8% intraday before profit-taking, spotlighting volatility after recent regulatory pushes in data localization.

o Major IT stocks logged healthy volumes and upside, as investors hunt AI-driven winners ahead of the Information Technology Conference tomorrow. Watch for timing cues on announced product launches and policy pivots.

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o RMG shutdown sweeps startups :

‍Dream11, MPL, Zupee, Probo—all pulling plug on real-money games ahead of imminent law enforcement, a decisive pivot in India’s ₹3.8B gaming market.

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Actionable : Eyes on digital infra and mid-cap cloud/cybersecurity plays; policy and product windows could drive re-ratings by week’s end.

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Funding Radar: Money Moves

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• IPO wave: Five major listings closed yesterday, including Vikram Solar, Gem Aromatics, Patel Retail & Shreeji Shipping Global. Allotments today; primary market momentum is robust. Tata Capital’s mammoth IPO (INR 17,200cr) and Hero FinCorp (INR 3,668cr) are slated for debut—watch for spillover into NBFC and renewable sectors.

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• Sector appetite: Deals this week are the largest YTD in fintech and renewables, hinting at risk-on sentiment for exposure to India’s retail credit and clean energy pivot.

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Actionable : If listing pops hold, expect follow-on deals in financials, green energy and logistics.

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Market Movers: Overnight Shocks/Setup

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• Nifty/Sensex: Closed strong (Nifty 25,083.75 ▲ 0.13%; Sensex 82,000.71 ▲ 0.17%). Pharma and Financials led the charge, buoyed by trade optimism and GST panel’s tax exemption push. IT remained positive as fresh policy tailwinds emerged.

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• Sector snapshot: Pharma gained on renewed US trade hopes. Healthcare and Financial Services surged on continued DII support and bullish flows.

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Actionable : US Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech today, plus domestic IPO results. Expect volatility in rate-sensitive and debut stocks.

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NIFTY 500 Watchlist: Today

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• Volume breakouts:

o HDFC Bank, Infosys, State Bank of India, Cipla, Dr. Reddy’s all saw multi-day high volumes, signaling fresh accumulation.

o Pharma stocks smashed resistance zones with 3.2x volume; technical traders should watch for continued momentum and confirmation above pivot.

o Financials and IT advanced on policy news and sector re-alignment.

o Earnings downgrade risk: LSEG data shows Indian earnings forecasts slid 1.2% in two weeks amid looming U.S. tariffs—automobiles, capital goods, and consumer durables most hit.

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• Pinpointing action:

o Watch Nifty for sustained moves above 25,154 for bullish momentum.[10]

o Major volatility clusters near new issue stocks (Vikram Solar, Tata Capital).

o Swing setups: Focus on Pharma, Financials, and mid-cap IT.

o Mid-caps in consumer/tech: Could outperform on domestic resilience

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Deep Dive: Hot Topic of the Day

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“Digital Transformation: Goa’s Conclave Lights Policy Path”

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• Impact: Today’s gov-tech event could set immediate sectoral momentum—AI, cloud infra, e-governance stocks at inflection.

• Unique take: Policy implementation speed now matching private sector dynamism—use this as a high-frequency signal for shifts in digital names.

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Quick Bytes (Off-the-Radar Insight)

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GST + S&P uplift duo: Analysts suggest GST reforms plus the S&P sovereign upgrade could deliver a structural floor under market, potentially attracting incremental FII flows

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What to Watch Today: Critical Triggers

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• IPO allotment results (Vikram Solar, Gem Aromatics)

• Jackson Hole conference (US Fed Rate outlook impact)

• India Services PMI release (watch for upside surprises)

• Sector support/resistance: Nifty 25,154; Bank Nifty 55,900; Sensex 82,200

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Quote of the Day

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“A digital-first economy is now unstoppable—every new policy sets a market rotation.”

— Rima Agrawal, Tech Strategist (August 22, 2025)

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Compliance/Disclaimer

All content is strictly for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve significant risk. Please consult a qualified adviser and conduct your own diligence before making investment decisions.

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