August 25, 2025 | Cautious Optimism as Markets Track Powell and Tech Strength

Oorjita FinAI Morning Brief

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Monday, August 25, 2025 | 10:03 AM IST

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1. Good Morning & Market Recap

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Good morning, savvy investors! The week kicks off with cautious optimism as Asian markets digest mixed global cues while awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole address.

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Overnight Highlights (Past 24 Hours):

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• 09:15 IST: Indian indices opened higher with Nifty up 60.40 points (0.24%) at 24,930.50, Sensex gained 194.59 points (0.24%) to 81,501.44

• 08:30 IST: GIFT Nifty futures indicate positive start, up 113 points (0.5%) at 24,992[2]

• Overnight: US markets closed mixed - S&P 500 fell 0.4%, Nasdaq down 0.34%, Dow declined 0.34%

• Asian Session: China's CSI 300 rose 0.51%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.4%, Japan's Nikkei gained marginal 0.04%

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What's Different Today? IT sector leading with 1.5% gains as Tech Mahindra and TCS emerge as top gainers, signaling renewed confidence in technology stocks. Sectoral shifts now favor mid/small‑caps over blue‑chip momentum

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What to Watch: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra and SBI Chairman C.S. Setty address FIBAC banking conference in Mumbai this morning. Will futures conversion hold? DII appetite vs FII selling. Tariff deadline Aug 27.

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2. Tech Pulse

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Meta-Google Cloud Mega Deal: Google strikes $10+ billion six-year cloud computing agreement with Meta Platforms, marking the first major cloud deal between the tech giants and Google's second big

agreement after OpenAI.

- Rate‑cut buoyancy supports IT: Exporter-heavy IT showing pre‑open strength as USD softens.

- Smart money leans small‑cap tech: Mid/small‑cap SaaS could benefit; watch Q2 booking flows.

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Nvidia-China Tensions Escalate: Nvidia asks Foxconn to suspend work on H20 AI chip - the most advanced product currently permitted for sale to China, indicating heightened US-China tech restrictions. India's Open-Source AI Push: Sentient founder Himanshu Tyagi advocates for open-source AI to challenge US tech dominance, as India's AI talent pool grows rapidly amid the country's push for technological sovereignty.

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Sectoral Impact: Cloud infrastructure stocks and semiconductor plays, likely to see volatility. Indian IT services companies may benefit from increased cloud adoption trends.

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Actionable : Monitor semiconductor stocks at market open for potential impact from Nvidia-China development.

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Trigger : USD/INR < 87.3 improves IT export flows; Powell’s clarity could create renewed IT bounce.

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3. Funding Radar

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Indian Startup Surge: ₹2,268 crores ($272.1 million) raised across 18 deals between August 11-16, marking a 38% week-on-week increase despite 28% fewer deals.

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Standout Deals:

• Truemeds: $65M Series C led by Accel and Peak XV Partners in healthtech

• Zepto: $45.7M Series F from Motilal Oswal in quick commerce

• Darwinbox: $40M Series D from Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan in HR tech

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Surprise Sectors: AI startups like Graas.ai ($9M Series B) and Refold AI ($6.5M Seed) driving deal volume, reflecting investor confidence in scalable AI ventures.

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Actionable Advice: Watch for ripple effects in healthtech and AI sectors, with potential re-ratings for listed peers in these segments.

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4. Market Movers

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Yes Bank Regulatory Boost: SMBC receives RBI approval to acquire up to 24.99% stake, completing the framework for Japanese bank's investment in the private lender.

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Reliance Group Clarification: Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure affirm that CBI action on Reliance Communications has no impact on their operations, potentially easing investor concerns.

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FPI Selling Pressure: Foreign investors sold ₹1,623 crores worth of stocks on Friday, while DIIs turned net sellers of ₹329.25 crores, breaking a 33-session buying streak.

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Comparative Frame: Current FPI selling mirrors the pattern seen in Q1 2025 during similar global uncertainty phases, but domestic institutional support remains relatively stable.

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What to Watch: Trump's 50% tariff deadline looms on August 27th, creating potential volatility catalyst.

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5. NIFTY 500 Watchlist

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Major Overnight News: IT sector leads with 1.5% gains as global tech deals boost sentiment.

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Key Losers: ICICI Bank, Apollo Hospitals, Maruti Suzuki face selling pressure amid profit-booking.

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Sectoral Action: Metal index up 0.5%, BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices marginally higher.

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6. Quick Bytes

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• Global Quirk: Stanley Druckenmiller's family office bought out Power Metal's holding in Guardian Metal, sending GMET shares up 37% for the week

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• Off-Radar: Shield Therapeutics surged 42% on strong interim results, remaining on track for cash flow positive by end-2025

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• Data Point: Alien Metals jumped on outstanding drill results from Elizabeth Hill Silver Project in Australia's Pilbara region

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• Off‑radar: On Friday, 80% of mid‑cap advancers were DII‑funded.

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• Currency: INR steady near 87.3/USD after Friday’s dip, supportive for exporters.

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7. Deep Dive – Hot Topic of the Day

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India's Semiconductor Independence Push

The government's rare intervention in private sector semiconductor manufacturing marks a pivotal shift toward Atmanirbharta in critical technology infrastructure. This aligns with PM Modi's roadmap announced recently, targeting reduced dependence on Chinese chip imports. Unique Dataset: India currently imports 85% of its semiconductor requirements, with China accounting for nearly 40% of supply chains. The domestic push could create a ₹50,000+ crore market opportunity by 2030. Cross-Market Comparison: Similar to South Korea's K-Semiconductor Belt initiative (2021-2030), India's approach combines government backing with private sector execution.

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Actionable Takeaways: Watch for announcements on PLI scheme extensions and potential listed beneficiaries in semiconductor assembly and testing segments.

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8. What to Watch Today

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• High Impact: RBI Governor's address at FIBAC banking conference (morning)^[2]

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• Medium Impact: Global tech earnings reactions post-Meta-Google deal^[4]

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• Technical: Nifty resistance at 25,000, support at 24,850^[1]

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• Regulatory: Updates on Trump tariff deadline (Aug 27)^[1]

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• Sectoral: IT sector momentum sustainability beyond opening gains^[1]

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9. Quote of the Day

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"Nifty started last week with strength but ended weak on profit booking, though the 25,000 milestone remains within reach. Caution is advised as Trump's 50% tariff deadline looms."‍

— Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities

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10. Chart of the Day

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NIFTY 500 Volume Leaders: Tech Mahindra leads with 3x volume spike, followed by TCS at 2.5x, showcasing IT sector's renewed institutional interest amid global cloud infrastructure deals.

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Compliance Disclaimer

All content is strictly informational and not financial advice. Please consult a qualified adviser before investing. Market investments entail risk, and personal diligence is essential.

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Poll Question: Will IT stocks sustain their Monday rally throughout the week given global tech deal

momentum?

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Share your market tips and topic suggestions at feedback@oorjitafinai.com

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