September 12, 2025 | Nifty at 25,000, Buyback Buzz, and Export Optimism

Morning Market Brief

Friday, September 12, 2025

Indian markets are poised for a strong opening, with GIFT Nifty indicating a 73-point gap-up. This follows seven consecutive sessions of gains for the Nifty 50, which has reclaimed the psychological 25,000 level. Overnight, US markets surged to record highs on renewed optimism around a Federal Reserve rate cut, even as inflation data came in slightly above expectations. The Dow Jones rallied 1.36%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also closed higher.

Fresh Insight

Optimism around the Indo–US trade dialogue is driving a risk-on sentiment, particularly benefiting export-oriented sectors. US inflation data meeting expectations has reinforced rate cut hopes, pushing global equities to fresh records.

Despite headline indices extending their winning streak, underlying sector rotation and muted participation from broader markets remain notable. The rupee’s slide to a record low near 88.45 against the dollar is emerging as a key pressure point, with potential implications for foreign investor sentiment. Today’s focus will be on whether momentum can sustain amid a weak currency and continued underperformance in parts of the IT pack.

Key Watch Factors Today

• Sustaining above Nifty 25,000 is crucial for a move toward the 25,200–25,250 zone
• FII outflows of ₹3,472 crore in the previous session warrant close monitoring
• Fed rate cut expectations continue to drive global risk appetite

Tech Pulse

Infosys Announces Record Buyback

Infosys declared its largest-ever share buyback of ₹18,000 crore at ₹1,800 per share, a 19% premium to the prevailing market price. This marks the biggest buyback since the company’s listing and is aimed at improving financial metrics while offering tax-efficient returns to shareholders.

TCS Pushes Semiconductor Capabilities

TCS launched chiplet-based system engineering services to accelerate semiconductor innovation, aligning with India’s broader ambitions to strengthen its domestic chip ecosystem.

iPhone Shipments from India Accelerate

Apple’s iPhone shipments from India are expected to rise sharply, supported by competitive pricing and strong festive season demand. The trend underscores the success of the production-linked incentive scheme and reinforces India’s manufacturing narrative.

Sector Headwinds

Indian IT companies continue to face uncertainty around proposed US outsourcing taxes. Many firms are already reducing reliance on H-1B visas by strengthening local US operations.

Actionable Trigger

Watch Infosys closely at market open following the buyback announcement. The broader IT outlook remains mixed amid regulatory and policy uncertainties.

Funding Radar

Unicorn Momentum Continues

India added 11 new unicorns in 2025, taking the total count to 73 despite global funding slowdowns. AI-focused Ai.tech leads the pack with a $1.5 billion valuation.

Key Funding Deals

Edtech major Eruditus raised $150 million, signaling sustained investor confidence in the sector. Wehouse, a home construction platform, raised ₹25 crore in a Series A round led by Piramal Alternatives, highlighting continued traction in real estate-linked services.

Sectoral Impact

AI and FinTech remain resilient amid global funding constraints, reflecting strong domestic investor confidence and structural growth themes.

Market Movers and Watchlist

Yesterday’s Top Performers

Adani Enterprises gained 2.3% on continued group momentum. Shriram Finance rose 2% on strong buying interest in financials, while NTPC advanced 1.8% to lead PSU gains. BHEL jumped 3.6% on strength in defense-related themes.

Key Losers

Bajaj Auto declined 1.35% on profit booking. Infosys fell 1.33% ahead of the buyback announcement, while Eicher Motors slipped 1.14% amid broader auto sector weakness.

Actionable Levels

• Nifty 50: Resistance at 25,200–25,250; support at 24,900
• Bank Nifty: Sustaining momentum could open a move toward 55,350

Quick Bytes (Global and Off-Radar)

US markets delivered a record-breaking session, with the Dow crossing 46,000 for the first time and the Nasdaq registering its 24th record close of 2025. The Russell 2000 surged 1.83%, reflecting improving small-cap sentiment on rate cut hopes.

In currency markets, the euro strengthened to around 1.17 against the dollar, while the rupee remained under pressure near 88.22. Gold held firm despite a mild dip, and crude oil prices continued to weaken on demand concerns.

Historically, September has been the weakest month for US equities, a seasonal trend that adds a layer of caution to the current optimism, even though past performance offers no guarantees.

Deep Dive – India’s Export Revival and Trade Dialogue Optimism

The Big Picture

Renewed Indo–US trade talks are driving optimism among Indian exporters. Textile and seafood stocks saw sharp rallies in the previous session before some profit booking emerged.

Key Statistics

• Export-focused names such as Apex Frozen Foods surged up to 17% before correcting
• Textile companies like Welspun Living gained nearly 10% on trade hopes
• The first tranche of a trade agreement is expected by November 2025

Peer Comparison

Unlike earlier trade tensions, the current dialogue appears more constructive, with US officials indicating that both sides are “not that far apart.”

Investor Takeaway

Selective exposure to quality exporters could benefit from trade normalization, though volatility is likely as negotiations progress.

What to Watch Today

• Market Open: GIFT Nifty indicates a 70+ point gap-up
• Sector Focus: IT (Infosys buyback impact), PSUs, export-oriented stocks
• Global Cues: Asian markets tracking US record highs
• Data Flow: No major domestic data releases scheduled
• Flows: Institutional activity following recent FII selling

Quote of the Day

“This is the largest buyback since the company’s listing. The buyback aims to improve financial metrics and offer tax-efficient returns to shareholders.”
— Infosys Management

Chart of the Day

The Nifty 50 has completed a seven-day winning streak, holding the 24,900 support level and breaking above a falling resistance trendline. Momentum indicators and rising short-term moving averages signal potential continuation of the uptrend.

Compliance and Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All data is sourced from multiple reliable references; however, accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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