September 16, 2025 | Trade Breakthroughs, Sector Rotation, and IPO Momentum

Morning Market Brief

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Global optimism is driving Asian markets higher after progress in U.S.–China trade discussions in Madrid, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a framework agreement on TikTok’s divestment. Combined with record closes on Wall Street, this development has set a constructive backdrop for Indian markets.

Today’s session is expected to see a tug-of-war between positive global cues and domestic profit-taking. A key trend to watch is whether sector rotation continues, with funds potentially moving out of recent outperformers such as IT and into cyclicals like realty and PSU banks.

Fresh Overnight Highlights

Japan’s Nikkei crossed the 45,000 milestone for the first time, leading gains across Asia-Pacific markets. With a Federal Reserve policy decision due later this week, markets are positioning for potential rate cuts. GIFT Nifty hovered near 25,157, down marginally, suggesting a muted opening despite strong global cues.

Key Watch Factors

Investors will track developments from the upcoming Trump–Xi trade call, the Fed’s policy outcome, and domestic earnings momentum heading into the festive demand season.

Tech Pulse

India’s AI-Led Economic Upside

NITI Aayog estimates that artificial intelligence could add between $1 trillion and $1.7 trillion to India’s GDP by 2035, with banking, manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals emerging as key beneficiaries of productivity gains.

Semiconductor Focus Intensifies

Indian IT companies are increasingly eyeing semiconductor and electronics manufacturing opportunities. The domestic electronics market is projected to expand from $45–50 billion to $100–110 billion by 2030, reinforcing long-term demand visibility.

Global Enterprise AI Push

Accenture announced plans to train 700,000 employees in agentic AI technologies, signaling accelerating enterprise adoption. Alphabet entered the $3 trillion market-cap club as AI optimism outweighed lingering antitrust concerns.

Sector Impact

IT services firms such as TCS and Infosys are positioning for semiconductor consulting and AI-led transformation opportunities, while broader AI infrastructure themes continue to gain traction.

Actionable Trigger

Watch for AI-related announcements during the festive season as enterprises accelerate digital transformation spending.

Funding Radar

Significant Recent Deals

Tessolve Semiconductor raised ₹1,323 crore from TPG Capital India, marking one of the largest recent deals in the semiconductor space. CityMall secured ₹414 crore in a Series D round backed by Accel and General Catalyst, while Seekho raised ₹247 crore in a Series B led by Bessemer Venture Partners and Lightspeed India.

Euro Pratik Sales raised ₹135 crore from anchor investors ahead of its mainboard IPO opening today. BacAlt Biosciences secured ₹18 crore in a pre-seed and seed round led by Avaana, bringing deeptech and biomaterials into focus.

Weekly Momentum

Indian startups raised over $401 million between September 8 and 13, led by EdTech major Eruditus. Funding diversification across semiconductors, social commerce, and education highlights healthy sector rotation.

Sectoral Ripple

Electronics manufacturing and renewable energy continue to attract strong private equity and venture capital interest ahead of India’s semiconductor mission rollout.

Market Movers and Watchlist

Yesterday’s Performance

The realty sector outperformed, gaining 2.41%, led by DLF and Lodha. Banking stocks showed resilience despite broader market consolidation. IT and pharma underperformed, declining 0.58% and 0.64%, respectively, on profit booking ahead of the Fed decision.

Notable Moves

Bank Nifty surprised markets by crossing 55,000 intraday, defying expectations of consolidation. IT majors such as Infosys and TCS now appear oversold, raising the possibility of a mean-reversion bounce if sentiment improves.

Actionable Levels

• Nifty 50: Support at 24,900–25,000; resistance at 25,150–25,300
• Bank Nifty: Support at 54,700; breakout targets at 55,500–56,000
• Stock Focus: HDFC Bank mean-reversion setup, DLF and Lodha momentum continuation, tactical entries in Infosys and TCS on weakness

Quick Bytes (Global and Off-Radar)

A commercial framework for TikTok’s U.S.-controlled ownership structure has reportedly been finalized. Japan’s Topix index hit a record 3,172.33, aided by yen weakness that continues to support exporters. China initiated a probe into U.S. analog chip imports, adding a regulatory overhang to semiconductor stocks.

Deep Dive – India’s IPO Renaissance

The Theme

SEBI’s recent regulatory relief for large IPOs is unlocking pent-up demand and setting the stage for a renewed wave of mega listings.

Key Changes

Companies with market capitalizations above ₹50,000 crore can now list with a minimum ₹1,000 crore issue size and an 8% public float, with timelines to reach 25% public shareholding extended to 10 years. Anchor allocations have also been increased to 40% of IPO size.

This Week’s Activity

Euro Pratik Sales opens today, while Urban Company’s IPO closed with a 109x subscription. In total, nine IPOs and seven listings are scheduled for the week.

Investor Takeaway

Higher anchor participation, including increased allocations for insurers and sustained participation from mutual funds, improves price discovery and reduces pressure on retail allocations. A selective, quality-driven approach remains key as large-cap issuers prepare to go public.

What to Watch Today

Macro Events

India–US trade discussions in New Delhi, Federal Reserve policy positioning, and the upcoming WPI data release.

Corporate Actions

Airfloa Rail Technology IPO allotment status, TechDefence Labs IPO performance, and updates from the IT earnings season.

Technical Watchpoints

Sustained GIFT Nifty levels above 25,150, banking sector follow-through after yesterday’s breakout, and reconciliation of FII and DII flows.

Quote of the Day

“We have a framework in place for TikTok’s U.S.-controlled ownership structure with commercial terms already finalized.”
— Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary

Chart of the Day

Bank Nifty confirmed a breakout with its first close above 55,000. Support is seen in the 54,700–54,900 range, with extension targets toward the 55,500–56,000 zone. The move stands out against broader market consolidation, signaling potential sector leadership rotation.

Compliance and Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market views are based on publicly available data and technical analysis and are subject to change. Readers should consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making investment decisions.

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