September 18, 2025 | Fed Cut Clarity, IT Tailwinds, and India’s Services Tech Moment

Morning Market Brief

Indian markets are set for a positive start after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the policy rate to the 4.00–4.25% range. GIFT Nifty is trading around 25,500, indicating a strong opening bias.

Unlike previous Fed decisions that introduced uncertainty, this cut came with clear dovish guidance. Chair Powell emphasized employment risks over inflation, projecting two additional quarter-point cuts later this year. The softer policy stance has weakened the dollar, supporting INR strength near 87.9 and improving conditions for foreign inflows, which turned marginally positive in the previous session.

What’s Different Today

This is the first rate cut of the cycle, accompanied by explicit forward guidance. Currency stability and dollar weakness are reinforcing a supportive backdrop for Indian equities.

Key Watch Factor

Sustained INR strength and follow-through in FII flows following the Fed’s dovish signal.

Tech Pulse

Meta’s Wearable Push

Meta launched Ray-Ban Meta Gen-2 smart glasses with significantly improved battery life and high-resolution displays, signaling rapid progress in consumer wearables. This could accelerate adoption curves and downstream opportunities for Indian technology partners.

Indian IT H-1B Pivot

Large IT services firms are reducing reliance on H-1B visas and increasing local hiring in the US. This structural shift has the potential to improve medium-term margins and reduce regulatory risk for companies such as TCS and Infosys.

Semiconductor Commercial Milestone

India is on track to begin commercial chip production by end-2025, backed by nearly $18 billion across ten projects. The announcement reinforces long-term confidence in the domestic semiconductor ecosystem.

Actionable Trigger

Watch for developments around the TCS–Qualcomm co-innovation lab in Bengaluru, which could act as a sentiment catalyst for IT and semiconductor-linked names.

Funding Radar

Urban Company’s Listing Signal

Urban Company debuted strongly at ₹162.25 against an issue price of ₹103, delivering over 57% listing gains. The performance validates investor appetite for asset-light, consumer services platforms and could lift sentiment for similar upcoming IPOs.

Private Funding Activity

FinBox raised $40 million in a round led by WestBridge, pointing to steady interest in credit infrastructure and fintech rails.

IPO Pipeline

Investment banks estimate India’s IPO market could add $1.3–1.5 trillion in market capitalization over the next decade. Near-term focus remains on Euro Pratik Sales and the anticipated Tata Capital listing.

Sectoral Impact

The success of Urban Company strengthens the gig economy and digital services investment thesis, with positive read-across for platform-led businesses.

Market Movers and Watchlist

Previous Session Leaders

State Bank of India rose over 3% following completion of its Yes Bank stake divestment. PSU banks led sectoral performance, while Bharat Electronics gained on continued defense sector momentum.

Key Technical Levels

• Nifty 50: Support at 25,260; resistance near 25,430
• Bank Nifty: Support at 55,170; resistance near 55,580

Actionable Watch

SBI holding above ₹830 and BEL sustaining above ₹285 for continuation setups.

Quick Bytes (Global and Off-Radar)

India’s rice stocks reached a record 48.2 million tonnes, while wheat inventories hit a four-year high. The surplus could support rural consumption heading into the festive season. Gold prices edged higher on seasonal demand, crude traded lower on weak distillate data, and domestic institutional buying continued to cushion small- and mid-cap stocks.

A notable global divergence persists, with US long-term yields trending lower even as small-cap value stocks outperform mega-cap growth, signaling a broader structural rotation.

Deep Dive – India’s “Services Tech” Flywheel After Urban Company

The Thesis

A strong listing for a hyperlocal, asset-light services platform could re-rate the broader “platform services” universe, including home services, micro-logistics, wellness, and gig infrastructure.

Why It Matters Now

Improving global liquidity conditions following Fed easing, combined with strong domestic flows, are enhancing risk appetite. Execution quality and contribution margins are becoming more important than pure GMV growth.

Peer Watchlist

Listed platforms with adjacency exposure, such as Nykaa and Zomato, alongside emerging O2O models, may see multiple expansion if profitability trajectories remain intact.

Investor Takeaway

Focus on businesses with strong unit economics, repeat usage, and city-level density. Avoid chasing post-listing spikes; accumulation on base formations with delivery confirmation remains the preferred approach.

What to Watch Today

• Market opening response to the Fed decision
• FII and DII flow trends
• Weekly options expiry dynamics
• Dollar index movement and its impact on emerging market flows
• Asian market follow-through post-Fed

Quote of the Day

“There was no broad support for a larger cut.”
— Jerome Powell, post-FOMC press conference

Compliance and Disclaimer

This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data is sourced from official exchanges and verified references. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct independent analysis or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

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