September 8, 2025 | Funding Revival, Tech Crosscurrents, and Rupee Pressures.

Good Morning & Market Recap

Markets enter Monday with cautious optimism after Friday’s mixed close. GIFT Nifty’s 86-point gap-up signals a positive opening, supported by Japan’s stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth (0.5% vs 0.3%) and its fifth consecutive quarter of expansion.

Key Watch Factors

• Auto sector momentum continues after Friday’s 2.8% surge driven by strong sales data
• IT sector pressure persists, with heavyweight stocks facing valuation and demand headwinds
• Global inflation concerns linger amid mixed Fed signals and renewed tariff uncertainty

Tech Pulse

Indian Tech Highlights

• Apple India crosses $9B in revenue, underscoring growing premium smartphone demand ahead of the iPhone 17 launch
• IT services evolution: Indian tech firms are shifting from RFP-led selling to proactive AI-driven pitches, now accounting for 33% of renewals
• PhysicsWallah IPO update: EdTech unicorn filed an updated DRHP for a ₹3,820 crore IPO, with founders trimming stakes

Global Tech Developments

• Tesla’s $1 trillion Musk package: Board proposes a compensation plan tied to long-term AI and robotics milestones
• Google fined $3.45B by the EU: Antitrust ruling on adtech practices could escalate US–EU trade tensions
• TikTok Europe milestone: Platform crosses 200 million monthly users, reaching nearly one-third of Europe’s population
• OpenAI chip strategy: Company is exploring in-house AI chips and supplier diversification, a medium-term tailwind for data centers and semiconductor supply chains

Sector Trigger: Watch the impact of Apple’s September 9 “Awe Dropping” event on Indian smartphone suppliers and component manufacturers.

Funding Radar

Surge Alert

Indian startup funding jumped 90% WoW to $186.1M in the first week of September, compared with $98.2M in the previous week, signaling improving risk appetite ahead of the festive season.

Mega Deals

• CityMall: $47M Series D (Accel-led) in social commerce
• Seekho: $28M to scale short-video learning
• FirstClub: $23M Series A in quick commerce
• Blue Tokai Coffee: $25M growth round
• Colive: $20M for co-living expansion

Sectoral Ripple: E-commerce dominated with $78.8M across 8 startups, highlighting quick-commerce consolidation and festive inventory buildup.

Market Movers & Watchlist

Friday’s Standouts

• Auto gainers: M&M (+2.34%), Eicher Motors (+2.41%), Maruti (+1.64%)
• IT laggards: Tech Mahindra (-1.49%), TCS (-1.54%), HCL Tech (-1.61%)
• Banking mixed: Canara Bank (+0.99%), ICICI Bank (-0.19%), HDFC Bank (+0.22%)

Monday Watchlist

• Earnings focus: SpiceJet, Tata Motors, M&M, Vedanta, BHEL
• Autos: Momentum names on demand revival expectations
• GST beneficiaries: Stocks in focus ahead of potential rate rationalization

Technical Levels

• Nifty: Resistance 24,800–25,100 | Support 24,600–24,200
• Bank Nifty: Above 54,200 (+200 pts) | Below 54,000 (-150 pts)

Quick Bytes (Global / Off-Radar)

• Nepal: Instagram, X, and YouTube blocked — potential signal for regional regulatory trends
• Xiaomi India: Strategy expands beyond smartphones into a broader ecosystem play
• ASML–Mistral AI: €1.3B investment makes ASML the largest shareholder, boosting Europe’s AI independence
• Cybersecurity: Cloudflare thwarted a record 11.5 Tbps DDoS attack, highlighting rising cyber-risk intensity

Deep Dive – India’s Startup Funding Renaissance

September Surge Breakdown

The 90% WoW funding jump reflects renewed venture confidence and pre-festive capital deployment.

Key Insights

• E-commerce dominance: 40% of funding ($78.8M) across eight startups
• Stage preference: $285M in growth-stage deals vs $63M early-stage
• Sector rotation: Shift from fintech toward commerce, logistics, and consumer tech

Investor Takeaway: Accel and Elevation Capital remain highly active, with portfolio companies showing strong execution in competitive segments.

Deep Dive – Rupee at Record Lows: Who Benefits, Who Hurts?

The rupee printed fresh lows last week (~88.36 intraday), driven by tariff uncertainty, FPI outflows, and broad USD strength.

Near-Term Dynamics
With forex markets shut today due to a holiday, settlement lags may temper intraday risk appetite, even as equities trade normally.

Sector Lens (1–3 months)

Positive Bias

• IT services
• Specialty chemical exporters
• Pharma companies with USD billing

Watch / Hedge

• OMCs, airlines, paints, and consumer staples with high import content

Investor Takeaway: Prefer export-heavy, cash-rich leaders with pricing power. For importers, focus on hedging disclosures and pass-through clarity in upcoming Q2 calls.

What to Watch Today

Macro Calendar

• No major domestic data releases
• Corporate earnings watch for Q1 FY26 laggards
• Global cues from European open and US futures

Regulatory Focus

• GST Council follow-up on rate rationalization
• RBI policy stance signals ahead of October review

Quote of the Day

“Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic; however, persistent volatility and mixed global cues continue to weigh on investor confidence.”
— Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst, Choice Broking

Chart of the Day

GIFT Nifty Pre-Market Momentum: A +86.5 point surge to 24,912 signals a strong opening bias, with key resistance near 24,980 (50-DMA confluence).

Compliance & Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All data has been validated through multiple sources. Market investments are subject to risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.

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