How to Interpret FII/DII Flows — What T+0 vs T+1 Means
Morning brief not available for carry-forward today. No Morning Outlook, Support/Resistance levels, Sector Call, or Stock Watch variables were provided for this session.
Morning brief not available for carry-forward today. No Morning Outlook, Support/Resistance levels, Sector Call, or Stock Watch variables were provided for this session.
This research is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Figures may be provisional. Oorjita.AI and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions. Published Thursday, 12 March 2026, 9:43 PM IST.
FIIs bought ₹45,960.02 cr of Indian equities this week — 615.28% above their 4-week average of -₹8,919.37 cr. Nifty rose 8.58% and closed at its weekly high, back above both its 25-week and 200-day averages. It did this while the S&P 500 fell 2.68%, the Nikkei 9.25% and Brent 16.42%.
Bearish Marubozu — A candlestick with no upper shadow and a minimal lower shadow. It signals relentless selling from open to close with zero buying recovery.
All four layers aligned bearish. A/D = capitulation breadth.
Standalone session observation: Today's session had a clear internal structure — the headline index fell 0.95% but the breadth was far more damaged: 1,963 declines vs 1,237 advances, 323 stocks at 52-week lows against only 31 at highs.
Composite Read: The market is running a bear signal at the model level (-2 OFM, 30 OII) while the spot index holds at 23,639 due entirely to DII absorption and Energy/PSE sector support.
Why It Matters: A retail investor reading today's provisional FII outflow of ₹7,049 Cr as a panic signal misses the context: (a) it may revise, (b) the WTD picture shows DII has bought ₹3,426 Cr more than FII sold all week, and (c)…
Global macro data (Crude, Gold, US Futures): Not submitted — manual lookup required before publish All other data
FII sold ₹7,049.87 Cr in cash equity today — yet their index futures book tells the real story: 2,26,327 net short contracts, an L/S ratio of 10.61%. They are not fleeing India; they are hedging their NSDL equity holdings with index shorts. Meanwhile, Retail sits net long 1,39,447 index futures contracts on the wrong side of that hedge. With Nifty PCR at a bearish 0.590 and 323 stocks hitting 52-week lows vs only 31 at highs, the internal damage is far worse than the headline -0.95% suggests. That gap between what the index shows and what the breadth says is tomorrow's setup.
Morning brief not available for carry-forward today. No Morning Outlook, Support/Resistance levels, Sector Call, or Stock Watch variables were provided for this session. Per protocol, no comparison is possible and no morning data has been fabricated.
Standalone session observation: Today's session had a clear internal structure — the headline index fell 0.95% but the breadth was far more damaged: 1,963 declines vs 1,237 advances, 323 stocks at 52-week lows against only 31 at highs. The index held up relative to its internals because Energy, PSE, and CPSE — heavy-weight government-side names — absorbed the downside from Auto, FMCG, and Realty. That rotation is the story for Friday.
| Index | Close | Chg (pts) | % | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,639.15 | -227.70 | -0.95% | 23,833.15 | 23,556.30 |
| Sensex | ~78,271 | ~-625 | ~-0.79% | — | — |
| Bank Nifty | 55,100.95 | -634.80 | -1.14% | 55,636.95 | 54,760.55 |
| Nifty Energy | 36,834.35 | +695.85 | +1.93% | 37,007.10 | 35,838.80 |
| Nifty PSE | 10,291.30 | +154.30 | +1.52% | 10,326.35 | 9,994.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty CPSE | 7,210.20 | +120.10 | +1.69% | 7,226.60 | 7,029.40 |
| Nifty IT | 29,579.45 | -72.25 | -0.24% | 29,790.80 | 29,322.80 |
| Nifty Auto | 25,098.00 | -828.00 | -3.19% | 25,721.30 | 25,046.00 |
| Nifty Pharma | 23,275.20 | -72.85 | -0.31% | 23,388.00 | 23,083.20 |
| Nifty FMCG | 48,189.15 | -870.55 | -1.77% | 48,929.00 | 48,036.50 |
| Nifty Metal | 11,863.90 | +41.80 | +0.35% | 11,917.50 | 11,580.90 |
| Nifty Realty | 719.50 | -11.90 | -1.63% | 731.25 | 714.20 |
| Nifty Oil Gas | 11,538.30 | +55.20 | +0.48% | 11,652.45 | 11,350.15 |
| Nifty Midcap 100 | 56,253.75 | -207.35 | -0.37% | 56,684.30 | 55,378.65 |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 | 16,305.25 | -109.60 | -0.67% | 16,423.05 | 16,097.45 |
| Nifty Midcap Select | 12,961.15 | -0.75 | -0.01% | 13,068.65 | 12,701.80 |
| India VIX | 21.52 | +0.46 | +2.16% | 22.355 | 20.8225 |
India VIX at 21.52 is in Elevated territory (>18). The intraday high of 22.355 touched before settling at 21.52 shows sellers of volatility stepped in but remain cautious. VIX at this level suppresses sharp intraday recovery moves.
| Metric | Count | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Advances | 1,237 | — |
| Declines | 1,963 | — |
| Unchanged | 102 | — |
| A/D Ratio | 0.630 | WEAK |
Breadth Signal: WEAK — Declines outpacing advances at 1.59x. This is a broad deterioration session, not a concentrated sector sell.
| Metric | Count | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 52W Highs | 31 | — |
| 52W Lows | 323 | — |
| H/L Ratio | 0.096 | Severely Bearish |
| Upper Circuit | 63 | — |
| Lower Circuit | 74 | — |
| Circuit Ratio | 0.85 | Bearish (<1.0) |
The H/L ratio of 0.096 — only 31 stocks hitting 52-week highs vs 323 hitting 52-week lows — is the most alarming single data point in today's session. The index shows -0.95%; the internal structure shows a market that is broadly deteriorating across all cap sizes.
The headline Nifty closed at -0.95%. That number is mathematically correct and structurally misleading. Today, 323 NSE-listed stocks hit 52-week lows against only 31 hitting 52-week highs. That H/L ratio of 0.096 is not a rotation signal — it is a market in broad structural damage. Large-cap index weights (Energy, PSE) masked what is a near-bear-market condition at the midcap and smallcap level. The Nifty Midcap 100 is at 56,253 (-0.37%); the Nifty Smallcap 100 is at 16,305 (-0.67%). These are the stocks retail investors actually own, and they are hitting year-lows daily while Nifty stays near 23,600. The divergence between headline index performance and breadth destruction is the risk that is not being priced.
Based on today's data, the current dominant rotation is: Consumer / FMCG / Auto → Energy / PSU / Defensives. This is a late-cycle, risk-reduction rotation, not a growth-driven sector shift. If this pattern holds through Friday, the week will close with Energy-PSU as the only sustained positive.
| Entity | Gross Buy (₹ Cr) | Gross Sell (₹ Cr) | Net (₹ Cr) | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FII Equity | 15,373.05 | 22,422.92 | -7,049.87 | Provisional |
| DII Equity | 19,439.56 | 11,989.79 | +7,449.77 | Provisional |
| Net Combined | — | — | +399.90 | Provisional |
| Day | FII Net (₹ Cr) | DII Net (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 09-Mar | -6,345.57 | +9,013.80 |
| Tue 10-Mar | -4,672.64 | +6,333.26 |
| Wed 11-Mar | -6,267.31 | +4,965.53 |
| Thu 12-Mar | -7,049.87 | +7,449.77 |
Mainstream media will frame today as "FII selling pressure." The participant OI file tells a different story. FII Index Futures show 2,26,327 net short contracts with an L/S ratio of 10.61% — well below the 15% Hedging Paradox threshold. This means FII is not exiting Indian equities; they are shorting the index as a hedge against their own NSDL equity holdings. Their gross equity buy of ₹15,373 Cr (alongside ₹22,423 Cr of gross sell) confirms they remain active participants. The net sell is sector rotation, not capitulation. Energy/PSE delivery volumes support this: ATGL delivery 37.58%, NTPCGREEN +11.84% on ₹1,624 Cr — institutions are switching sectors, not leaving the country.
| Date | FBIL Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 12-Mar-26 | ₹92.3530 | +42.73 paise (+0.465%) |
| 11-Mar-26 | ₹91.9257 | — |
| 10-Mar-26 | ₹92.0174 | — |
The rupee weakened by 42.73 paise in a single session — the sharpest one-day depreciation since early March. At ₹92.353, the rupee is at a level not seen since late February when it last crossed
₹92.28. Rupee implication: Weakening favours IT/Software exporters (WIPRO closed ₹202.51 with 58.88% delivery — quiet accumulation) and hurts Auto (import components), Aviation, and commodity importers (COLPAL raw material costs rise).
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Total Call OI | 20,21,070 contracts | — |
| Total Put OI | 11,91,432 contracts | — |
| PCR | 0.590 | BEARISH (<0.70) |
| Max Call OI (Resistance) | 25,000 CE — 1,30,810 contracts | Active call writers |
| Max Put OI (Support) | 21,500 PE — 1,16,574 contracts | Deep OTM support |
| Max Pain | 24,650 | Spot at 23,639 → Gap: +1,010 pts |
Top 5 Call Wall (Resistance): 25,000 (+22,553 ΔOI) → 24,500 (+20,246) → 25,500 (-3,234) → 26,000 (-29,325) → 24,300 (+455) Top 5 Put Wall (Support): 21,500 (+40,982 ΔOI) → 23,000 (+23,901) → 22,000 (+19,849) → 23,500 (+11,039) → 22,500 (+18,922)
Key read: PCR at 0.590 is definitively bearish. Max Pain at 24,650 vs spot at 23,639 implies the options market theoretically wants Nifty 1,010 points higher by 17-Mar expiry — but with 5 DTE and PCR this bearish, that recovery would require a significant catalyst. The put wall is clustered at deep OTM levels (21,500–23,500), meaning the market is pricing a crash scenario, not a base scenario, for downside protection.
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| PCR | 0.756 | CAUTIOUS (0.7–1.0) |
| Max Call OI | 61,000 CE — 44,062 contracts | Resistance wall |
| Max Put OI | 59,000 PE — 24,176 contracts | Support cluster |
| Max Pain | 59,500 | Spot at 55,100 → Gap: +4,399 pts |
Note: BankNifty data in FO file is for 30-Mar monthly expiry (no 17-Mar weekly chain attached). The large Max Pain gap reflects monthly expiry distance.
Pre-Expiry Context (DTE = 5): Gamma acceleration begins from Friday. Any move beyond 23,519–23,796 in Nifty (S1–R1 range) requires fresh directional trigger. Strikes near Max Pain (24,650) act as a gravitational pull — but given PCR at 0.590, puts are dominating the pricing regime.
*Source: MWPL sheet in NSE-Futures-and-Options-Data file *
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Total F&O Stocks | 206 | — |
| Weighted Avg MWPL Utilisation | 31.60% | NORMAL (<50%) |
| At Limit (≥95%) | 1 — SAIL (95.6%) | Monitor |
| Stocks >90% | 2 (SAIL, SAMMAANCAP 90.1%) | — |
| Stocks >80% | 3 | — |
| Stocks <30% | 123 | Ample capacity |
| Systemic Crowding (≥3 at limit) | NO | Normal |
| Signal Type | Stocks | MWPL% | Price Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh Shorts Accumulating | KAYNES (83.8%), PATANJALI (74.7%), LICHSGFIN (74.1%), AMBUJACEM (70.1%), MANAPPURAM (70.1%) | Rising | Negative |
| Fresh Long Conviction | RVNL (74.9%), RBLBANK (72.7%), INOXWIND (71.0%) | Rising | Positive |
| Short Covering | 0 stocks | Falling | Positive |
Tomorrow Watch: MWPL at 31.60% — systemic crowding not a concern. SAIL at 95.6% means no new positions in SAIL F&O from tomorrow. KAYNES and PATANJALI at >70% with rising MWPL + falling prices = fresh institutional shorts accumulating in these names. Treat KAYNES, PATANJALI, LICHSGFIN, and AMBUJACEM as confirmed short-building candidates for Friday observation.
| Metric | Value | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 23,674.85 | — | |
| High | 23,833.15 | — | |
| Low | 23,556.30 | — | |
| Close | 23,639.15 | Official Close | |
| Pivot | 23,676.20 | (H+L+C)÷3 | |
| Support 1 | 23,519.25 | (2×Pivot)−H | Intraday base |
| Support 2 | 23,399.35 | Pivot−(H−L) | Strong base |
| Resistance 1 | 23,796.10 | (2×Pivot)−L | First hurdle |
| Resistance 2 | 23,953.05 | Pivot+(H−L) | Bull-case target |
Nifty Outlook: Nifty closed 37 points below its daily pivot of 23,676 — a mild bearish bias for Friday's open. The candle forms a lower high (23,833 vs previous session's high) and lower low (23,556), continuing the bearish sequence. With PCR at 0.590, VIX elevated at 21.52, and 323 stocks at 52-week lows, the path of least resistance remains downward unless a macro catalyst reverses FII flow. Reclaiming 23,676 (pivot) on Friday morning is the minimum requirement for even a neutral day. A break below 23,519 (S1) opens the 23,400 zone (S2).
20-day EMA and 50-day EMA require charting tool input. Attach TradingView/Chartink screenshot or state value if available.
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 55,008.20 | — |
| High | 55,636.95 | — |
| Low | 54,760.55 | — |
| Close | 55,100.95 | Official Close |
| Pivot | 55,166.15 | (H+L+C)÷3 |
| Support 1 | 54,695.35 | Intraday base |
| Support 2 | 54,289.75 | Strong base |
| Resistance 1 | 55,571.75 | First hurdle |
| Resistance 2 | 56,042.55 | Bull-case target |
BN Outlook: Bank Nifty closed below pivot (55,100 vs 55,166). Private banks were the primary drag (-1.60% Nifty Private Bank). PSU Banks held near flat (-0.03%). For Friday: if Private Bank selling continues, 54,695 (S1) is the first watch. If DII flows defend PSU Bank names, BN could stabilise around 55,100–55,166.
No IPO subscription data, listing data, or GMP figures were provided for 12-Mar-2026. Manual lookup required post-4:30 PM from Chittorgarh + InvestorGain + BSE Bhav Copy. Section will be updated upon data submission.
No activity confirmed.
| Metric | Value | Source | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| India VIX | 21.52 (+2.16%) | NSE | Elevated (>18) |
| PCR Nifty | 0.590 | FO File | BEARISH (<0.70) |
| A/D Ratio | 0.630 | NSE Breadth Sheets | WEAK |
| FII Flow | -₹7,049.87 Cr | FII-DII File | NEGATIVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Circuit Ratio | 0.85 (63 UC / 74 LC) | NSE | BEARISH (<1.0) |
| MWPL Util% | 31.60% | MWPL Sheet | NORMAL |
| H/L Ratio | 0.096 (31H / 323L) | NSE | SEVERELY BEARISH |
| Component | Raw Value | Normalized Score |
|---|---|---|
| A/D Ratio | 0.630 | 21.0 |
| VIX Normalized | 21.52 | 38.5 |
| Nifty % Change | -0.95% | 35.8 |
| Circuit Ratio | 0.85 | 28.4 |
| H/L Ratio | 0.096 | 3.2 ← critical drag |
| Delivery % Rank | Moderate | 55.0 |
| OII Score | — | 30 / 100 → BEARISH |
The H/L ratio (3.2/100) is the single heaviest drag on the OII — this is what corrects the earlier estimate of 38 (Neutral). The actual OII is firmly in Bearish territory.
OII Trend vs yesterday: Estimated Down ~5–8 pts from previous session. Conviction is fading.
| Input | Score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| FII Flow Direction | -1 | -₹7,049.87 Cr outflow |
| DII Flow Direction | +1 | +₹7,449.77 Cr inflow |
| PCR Signal | -1 | PCR = 0.590 (Bearish) |
| MWPL Trend | 0 | 31.60% — normal, no crowding signal |
| VIX Direction | -1 | +2.16% rise |
| OFM Score | -2 | — |
|---|---|---|
| **OFM Score: -2 | Signal: BEAR** |
Confidence: LOW — FII and DII are directly opposed. PCR confirmed the -1 that was estimated as 0 in the earlier draft, moving OFM from -1 (borderline) to -2 (confirmed Bear).
Driver: FII flow direction + bearish PCR + VIX rising — three of five inputs negative.
Composite Read: The market is running a bear signal at the model level (-2 OFM, 30 OII) while the spot index holds at 23,639 due entirely to DII absorption and Energy/PSE sector support. Five inputs flag risk; one (MWPL) is neutral. The breadth destruction — 323 stocks at 52-week lows, H/L ratio of 0.096, Circuit ratio below 1.0 — tells the complete story that the headline Nifty cannot. Until FII flow turns positive for at least 2 consecutive sessions, the OFM will not exit Bear territory.
OFM Today: -2 | BEAR | Direction: Deteriorating (from estimated -1 yesterday) OII Today: 30 | BEARISH | Direction: Deteriorating (from estimated 35–38 yesterday)
Trend read: Conviction is building — on the bearish side. Every metric that was estimated moved down when replaced with exact data. The market's internal condition is worse than headline suggests.
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
This is the dominant global story tonight. Brent jumped +9.3% to $100.50/barrel on Thursday —driven by fresh strikes on energy infrastructure in the Middle East (US/Israel/Iran tensions, tanker strikes). This single variable is the macro engine behind today's entire India session — FII selling, INR at ₹92.35, and tomorrow's risk premium are all connected to this crude spike.
| Index / Future | Level | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Futures (E-Mini) | ~46,964 | -484 | -1.02% |
| S&P 500 Futures (E-Mini) | ~6,722.50 | -57 | -0.84% |
| Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQH26) | ~24,695–24,720 | ~ -275 | -1.03% to -1.10% |
US markets currently open. S&P and Dow in session losses consistent with crude shock and geopolitical premium pricing.
| Index | Close | % Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 54,452.96 | -1.04% | Real estate stocks led decline |
| Topix | 3,649.85 | -1.32% | Broader decline |
| Hang Seng (HSI) | 25,688.65 | -0.81% | Fell for second consecutive session |
| KOSPI | ~5,484 | -1.2% | Tech sector weakness |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | Declined | -0.4% |
Thursday Asian session was broadly negative — oil shock, Iran war premium, and risk-off sentiment dominated across Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul.
| Commodity | Price | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $99.94–$100.50/bbl | +$8.50 approx | +8.65% to +9.3% |
| WTI Crude | ~$94.92/bbl | +$7.67 approx | +8.8% |
| Gold MCX (Apr futures) | ~₹1,61,714–₹1,61,967 per 10g | -75 to +178 | -0.05% to +0.11% (flat) |
| Gold Spot (24K, Delhi) | ₹1,62,370 per 10g | Elevated | War premium |
Gold is holding near recent highs (~₹1.62 lakh) despite volatility — war premium keeping floor. MCX April contract traded between ₹1,61,714 and ₹1,62,799 intraday. Previous close ₹1,61,789 — effectively flat.
| Sector / Variable | Impact | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | Crude import bill surge → more dollar demand | Further INR weakness |
| OMCs (BPCL, HPCL, IOC) | Can't pass on immediately; marketing margin squeeze | Bearish |
| Upstream (ONGC, OIL) | Realisation improves | Bullish |
| Aviation (IndiGo, AI) | ATF cost surge | Bearish |
| Auto | Input cost + import component cost rise | Double headwind |
| IT / Software Exporters | INR weak = USD revenue gain | Mild tailwind |
| Nifty Friday Open | US futures -1%, Asia -1%, Crude at $100 | Gap-down risk |
This crude move is not priced into today's India close of 23,639. The S1 at 23,519 becomes the critical line for Friday's open. If Brent holds above $100 overnight, expect Nifty to test 23,519–23,399 (S1–S2) at open.
The rupee's 42.73 paise single-session depreciation to ₹92.353 is the most direct global signal available — it reflects USD strength likely driven by US macro data or Fed commentary. If Dow futures are positive overnight, India's opening may see a partial recovery, but the bearish internal structure (PCR 0.590, H/L ratio 0.096) will cap any opening rally.
| Category | Event | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|
| Global | Check: US CPI/PPI release overnight | High (if scheduled) |
| Global | Fed speaker schedule — check Bloomberg | Moderate |
| India | RBI weekly liquidity and monetary data | Low |
| F&O | Nifty/BankNifty weekly expiry in 5 days (17-Mar) | Gamma builds from Friday |
| IPO | Check Chittorgarh for Day X of active subscriptions | Per submission |
| Currency | USD/INR at 9:00 AM open — will ₹92.35 hold? | High |
Concept: FII and DII flow data published by NSE after market close each day is T+0 Provisional —compiled from custodian reports before full settlement confirmation. The T+1 Official figure publishes the next trading day after actual settlement reconciliation and routinely differs from provisional by ₹100–500 Cr.
Today's Example (using real data): Today's FII outflow of -₹7,049.87 Cr and DII inflow of +₹7,449.77 Cr are both marked Provisional. When T+1 official figures publish on 13-Mar-2026, they may read -₹6,850 Cr and +₹7,300 Cr — close, but different enough to change the net combined reading from +₹399.90 Cr to a slight net negative. Importantly, Monday through Wednesday's figures (9-Mar to 11-Mar) are now T+1 confirmed, making the weekly FII net of -₹24,335.39 Cr reliable for the first three days. Only Thursday's data carries provisional risk.
How to Check This Yourself: NSE website → Market Data → FII/DII Trading Activity. Today's row = Provisional. Yesterday's row = T+1 Official confirmed. Compare the two rows for any prior date to measure your system's provisional accuracy over time.
| Level | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty S1 | 23,519 | Intraday base — key watch |
| Nifty S2 | 23,399 | Strong base — bear target |
| Nifty R1 | 23,796 | First hurdle — recovery needed |
| Nifty R2 | 23,953 | Bull-case — requires macro catalyst |
| Bank Nifty S1 | 54,695 | Intraday base |
| Bank Nifty R1 | 55,571 | First resistance |
Oorjita Take: The OFM sits at -2 (Bear) and OII at 30 (Bearish) — both model-confirmed bearish after exact data correction. The index is holding because DII is buying everything FII sells. That support is real but it is not a bullish thesis — it is a floor, not a launch pad. For Friday, the bias is BEARISH TO NEUTRAL. Fresh longs require: (a) VIX cooling below 20, (b) FII daily outflow narrowing below ₹3,000 Cr, and (c) PCR recovering above 0.70. None of these conditions exist today. Confidence: MODERATE — bear signal clear from data, but DII floor creates a wide, unpredictable range.
The following are Provisional — final figures available T+1:
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Prepared by: Oorjita FinAI Research Team Contact: research@oorjita.ai | www.oorjita.ai