US Government Shutdown Impact

Indian markets are set for a flat opening today after Tuesday's strong rebound from an 8-day losing streak. GIFT Nifty futures indicate muted sentiment at around 24,947 levels, down marginally from previous close. The previous trading session on October 1 saw Nifty 50 surge 225.20 points to close at 24,836.30 (+0.92%), led by banking and auto stocks. Markets were closed yesterday for Gandhi Jayanti holiday.

Key watch factors today include sustained buying in banking stocks, auto sector momentum, and global cues from record-high US markets despite the ongoing government shutdown.

What’s different today: Cash markets reopen after holiday with positive global risk tone but oil disinflation tailwind vs firm USD/INR reference ~88.68. Watch Bank Nifty follow-through.

Tech Pulse

Global semiconductor stocks rallied on Thursday with Nvidia hitting a record high (+0.9%), driving Nasdaq to fresh all-time peaks. Intel and AMD both surged over 3% as AI optimism continues to power tech sector gains. The tech rally reflects strong earnings expectations and growing AI demand across sectors.

Indian IT majors like TCS and Infosys posted modest gains in the previous session, benefiting from the global tech momentum. Sectoral rotation toward technology is expected to continue with Q2 earnings season approaching. Watch for IT sector performance as US markets maintain record-high momentum despite government shutdown concerns.

Funding Radar

Indian startup funding remained under pressure in Q3 2025, falling 38% year-on-year to $2.1 billion across 240 deals. The broader tech ecosystem attracted $7.7 billion in the first nine months of 2025, down 23.8% from $10.1 billion in the same period last year. Mumbai topped funding charts while Bengaluru led in deal count.

Recent notable funding rounds include PharmEasy's $191.7 million debt raise, Emergent AI's $23 million Series A led by Lightspeed Ventures, and Chakr Innovation's $23 million Series C from Iron Pillar. The funding environment shows signs of gradual recovery with weekly funding jumping 19% to $377.4 million in late September.[13]

Market Movers & Watchlist

Banking stocks emerged as key drivers with Nifty Financial Services surging 360.1 points (+1.38%) in the last session. Top performers included Shriram Finance (+5.29%), Kotak Bank (+3.54%), and Axis Bank (+2.47%). Auto sector momentum continued with Tata Motors leading gains at +5.61%.

Key watchlist includes banking heavyweights ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank for sustained momentum. Auto stocks like Tata Motors and sector rotation toward financial services warrant close monitoring. Resistance levels for Nifty 50 stand at 24,900-25,000 zone.

Oil-sensitives: Crude near multi-month lows is a tailwind if sustained; watch Brent $64–66.

Gold proxies: With gold near records, monitor jewellery exporters & MFs with gold exposure.

Quick Bytes (Global/Off-Radar)

US markets achieved unprecedented feat with S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all rising for five consecutive days - first time since November 2023. Gold prices eased to ~ $3,872 per ounce from record highs as investors booked profits amid ongoing US government shutdown. Crude oil remained weak at WTI ~ $ 62.1 per barrel, down 18.37% year-on-year.

Deep Dive – US Government Shutdown Impact

The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its third day, has surprisingly failed to dent market sentiment as all three major indices hit record highs. The S&P 500 gained 0.3% to 6,715.35, Dow rose 0.2% to 46,519.72, and Nasdaq climbed 0.4% to 22,844.05.

Historically, government shutdowns have minimal market impact, and AI-driven tech momentum is overshadowing political gridlock concerns. The shutdown has halted key economic data releases including the September nonfarm payrolls report, potentially reducing Fed decision-making pressure points. Markets are betting on brief resolution given historical precedent.

What to Watch Today

Asian markets opened mixed with Nikkei 225 rising 0.42% and Topix up 0.35%, while Australia's ASX declined 0.17%. Japan's unemployment rate rose to 2.6% in September, above 2.4% forecast. Hong Kong's Hang Seng expected to open marginally lower with Chinese and South Korean markets closed for holidays.

Domestic focus on banking sector follow-through, auto stock momentum, and pre-earnings positioning. No major economic data scheduled due to holiday calendar impact.

Quote of the Day

"The market's mixed but mostly positive performance reflects cautious optimism among investors who are weighing both risks and opportunities." - Market Analyst commentary on sustained US market resilience despite government shutdown.

Compliance Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data is sourced from multiple verified platforms and cross-validated as per our editorial standards. Investors should conduct independent research and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions. Oorjita FinAI Services is not liable for any investment decisions based on this content. Markets are subject to volatility and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Whatever trends you're following today: hope you're early enough to profit and wise enough to exit.