RBI's Rate Cut Dilemma

Good Morning & Market Recap

Indian equity markets face the monthly F&O expiry today after extending their losing streak to seven consecutive sessions on Monday. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,634.90 (-19.80 points, -0.08%), while Sensex settled at 80,364.94 (-61.52 points, -0.08%). Markets are cautiously positioned ahead of the RBI MPC policy outcome on Wednesday, with most analysts expecting a status quo on rates despite SBI Research advocating for a 25 bps cut. GIFT Nifty indicates a flat start, trading 12 points higher at 24,700 levels.

Overnight global tone: US equities rose (Dow +0.15%, S&P 500 +~0.26%, Nasdaq +~0.48%); gold hit fresh record (> $3,830/oz); oil eased. Key driver: US shutdown risk + rate-cut odds

RBI policy looms this week; gold strength + softer oil is a defensive-tilt mix for India.

Tech Pulse

Global: US mega-cap tech led Monday’s rise; semis outperformed as shutdown risks were faded short-term.

India: IT was mixed Monday; global tech bid vs domestic profit-taking. Sentiment today leans neutral-to-positive if US futures hold flat to up. Actionable trigger: Watch Nasdaq 100 futures into Europe open; flat/green bias above NQcv1 ~24,820–24,840 keeps tailwind for Indian IT open.

Japan-based UNLEASH Capital closed a Rs 300 crore fintech fund specifically targeting early-stage Indian startups, planning to deploy capital across 12-15 fintech companies. Indian tech startup funding showed resilience despite declining 23% to $7.7 billion in Jan-Sep 2025, maintaining its position as the third-most funded market globally behind US and UK. SaaS platform PostHog achieved unicorn status with a $75 million Series C at $1.4 billion valuation, highlighting continued investor interest in B2B software solutions.

RBI Action on BNPL: The RBI has directed the "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) startup Simpl to cease its payment operations.

Rapido's Funding Round: Ride-hailing firm Rapido is reportedly finalizing a $550 million funding round, which includes an exit for Swiggy.

Swiggy's Instamart Pivot: Swiggy is restructuring its quick commerce arm, Instamart, to move towards an inventory-led model

Key Trigger: Restaurant management software Petpooja raised Rs 137 crore from Dharana Capital, indicating sustained appetite for digitization plays in the hospitality sector.

Funding Radar

The startup ecosystem witnessed steady activity with Enterprise Applications leading sector-wise funding at $2.3 billion, followed by Retail at $2.0 billion and Transportation & Logistics at $1.79 billion. Despite overall funding decline, median round sizes doubled to $1.5 million from $683,000 year-on-year, suggesting quality over quantity approach. India created four new unicorns in 9M 2025, bringing the total count to 122, with 22 having already achieved exits through IPOs or acquisitions.

Bcfd Technologies (Sorted): The AI-driven grocery supply chain startup secured ₹132.93 crore in a Series A round

Market Movers & Watchlist

The Nifty shows critical support at 24,600-24,400 levels, with analysts warning of further weakness if these levels break. Bank Nifty formed a Doji pattern at 54,461, indicating indecision ahead of monthly expiry. Key resistance zones lie at 24,800-24,900 for Nifty, while Bank Nifty faces hurdles at 54,800-55,000.

Watch Levels: Nifty immediate support: 24,400 | Resistance: 24,800 | Bank Nifty support: 54,200 | Resistance: 54,800.

Nifty 50's seven-day consecutive decline ahead of monthly F&O expiry

Quick Bytes (Global/Off-Radar)

Gold prices strengthened to $3,839.10 per troy ounce, gaining 0.15% amid safe-haven demand, with prices up 44.31% year-on-year. Crude oil (WTI) fell to $63.08 per barrel, declining 0.59% as global supply concerns ease. US markets closed higher on Monday with S&P 500 gaining 0.26% and Nasdaq advancing 0.48% on AI stock rally.

Deep Dive – RBI's Rate Cut Dilemma

The RBI faces a critical decision as its three-day MPC meeting concludes Wednesday, with markets divided on rate action expectations. SBI Research advocates for a 25 bps cut, citing benign inflation trajectory and the need to support growth momentum. However, robust Q1 GDP growth of 7.8% and potential upward inflation pressures post-festive season create a complex policy landscape. The central bank has already delivered 100 bps cuts between February-June 2025, bringing repo rate to 5.5%.

Gold @ Record vs Oil Softer: India’s Macro Mix”

• Stats: Spot gold > $3,830/oz; Brent recent settlements $67–70 band.
• Implications: For India, terms-of-trade improve if oil stays contained, cushioning FPI outflows’ INR impact; gold surge tends to support jewelry inventories’ collateral value short-term but risks discretionary squeeze.
• Peer angle: Asia EMs with oil-import dependence (India) comparatively benefit vs producers when Brent eases.
• Investor takeaway: Favor FMCG/Utilities for margin stability if gold stay-up/INR steady; OMCs benefit from softer crude; jewelry retailers volatile near festive season—prefer those with hedging discipline.

What to Watch Today

• Monthly F&O expiry session - expect volatile moves around key Nifty levels
• Nifty 50: Support is seen at 24,400, with resistance at 24,800
• Bank Nifty: Key support lies at 54,200, while resistance is in the 54,800–55,000 zone.
• FII/DII data ahead of quarter-end portfolio rebalancing

Quote of the Day

"The market is showing signs of maturity, with rising acquisitions, steady IPO activity, and sustained unicorn creation offering balanced exits for founders and investors" - Neha Singh, Co-Founder,

Tracxn

Compliance Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data is sourced from multiple verified platforms and cross-validated as per our editorial standards. Investors should conduct independent research and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions. Oorjita FinAI Services is not liable for any investment decisions based on this content. Markets are subject to volatility and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Whatever trends you're following today: hope you're early enough to profit and wise enough to exit.