The market traded in a narrow range and closed with modest losses, aligning with the morning brief's cautious outlook ahead of the month-end derivatives expiry and the upcoming RBI policy decision.
Morning stance (baseline): Flat-to-soft open with PSU banks resilient; watch crude softness and gold strength; IT tone linked to US futures.
Sector Leaders: Nifty PSU Bank (+1.84%), Nifty Metal (+1.16%), Nifty Auto (+0.40%).
Sector Laggards: Nifty Media (-1.23%), Nifty Realty (-0.82%), Nifty Consumer Durables (-0.87%).
Gold at/near record > $3,800/oz: as shutdown risk boosts haven bids; monthly gain among largest in >10 years.
The market traded in a narrow range and closed with modest losses, aligning with the morning brief's cautious outlook ahead of the month-end derivatives expiry and the upcoming RBI policy decision. Volatility remained a key theme, with indices giving up intraday gains.
Indian equities ended a volatile session with minor cuts, marking the eighth consecutive day of losses for the Nifty 50. Caution prevailed as investors squared off positions on the last day of the September F&O series.
Defensive and cyclical sectors saw buying interest, while media and real estate stocks faced pressure.
An interesting divergence was noted where mid-cap and small-cap indices displayed resilience, closing flat to marginally positive despite the headline indices ending in the red. This suggests selective buying in specific non-blue-chip stocks.
The session saw a clear rotation out of high-beta sectors like media and realty into PSU banks and metals. This move indicates a defensive posture from traders, likely driven by uncertainty around the central bank's policy commentary and global cues.
There were no major domestic economic data releases that surprised the market. The Indian Rupee remained stable against the US Dollar.
Sentiment:
Liquidity/Breadth:
The market's short-term trend will be dictated by the RBI's monetary policy outcome tomorrow. A decisive move above the 24,800 level for the Nifty could signal a reversal, while a break below 24,400 may extend the corrective phase.
We invite readers to send in their questions for our next edition.
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. 'Provisional' data is subject to revision by sources and will be reconciled next trading day. Market investments carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct independent research and consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.
This research is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Figures may be provisional. Oorjita.AI and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions. Published Tuesday, 30 September 2025, 9:30 PM IST.
FIIs bought ₹45,960.02 cr of Indian equities this week — 615.28% above their 4-week average of -₹8,919.37 cr. Nifty rose 8.58% and closed at its weekly high, back above both its 25-week and 200-day averages. It did this while the S&P 500 fell 2.68%, the Nikkei 9.25% and Brent 16.42%.
Bearish Marubozu — A candlestick with no upper shadow and a minimal lower shadow. It signals relentless selling from open to close with zero buying recovery.
All four layers aligned bearish. A/D = capitulation breadth.
