India's Monday session closed positively as Nifty 50 settled at 25,713.00 (+141.75 points, +0.55%) and Sensex rallied approximately 350+ points, led by PSU banks and financial stocks.
MK
Dr. Murali KalyanaramanGlobal CFO · 30+ years in corporate finance · Chartered Accountant (ICAI) · 11 min read
Signal panelThe research, before the reading · 11 min full note
01
Market impact: Semiconductor and electronics stocks could see renewed interest.
02
Expiry Context: Max pain around 25,500; heavy call writing at 25,600–25,700 suggests bears in control
This research is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Figures may be provisional. Oorjita.AI and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions. Published Tuesday, 24 February 2026, 9:01 AM IST.
India's Monday session closed positively as Nifty 50 settled at 25,713.00 (+141.75 points, +0.55%) and Sensex rallied approximately 350+ points, led by PSU banks and financial stocks. The immediate trigger was the US Supreme Court's decision to invalidate President Trump's earlier tariff framework, creating temporary relief.
However, that optimism was swiftly reversed on Wall Street overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed 822 points (-1.7%) to close at 48,804.06, while the Nasdaq shed 258 points (-1.1%) to 22,627.27. The S&P 500 closed at 6,837.75, down 71 points (-1.0%). The trigger: Trump announced a replacement 15% blanket global tariff, reigniting uncertainty. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.026%—its lowest since November—as bonds rallied in a flight to safety.
What's different today?
India now faces a catch-up selloff. GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,599.50 (-122.50 points, -0.48%) as of early morning IST—approximately 113 points below Monday's Nifty close—pointing to a cautious gap-down open around 25,560–25,590. With today also being F&O expiry, expect amplified swings at key strike prices (25,500 CE/PE, 25,600 CE/PE) and rollover pressure into March contracts.
Asian markets showed mixed responses: Hang Seng surged 2.40% to 27,048.19, shrugging off US weakness, while Nikkei 225 declined 1.12% to 56,825.70. South Korea's Kospi fell 1.1% after a record-breaking run.
Key watch factors today:
F&O expiry dynamics — rollover costs, max pain levels, and directional bias post-3:00 PM
Trump tariff clarity — any sectoral exemptions or India-specific negotiations
FII/DII flows — Monday saw FII net buying of ₹3,550.66 crores vs DII net selling of ₹1,417.12 crores; reversal today would signal capitulation
Global risk-off spillover — crude oil, INR, and bond yield movements
2Tech Pulse
Semiconductor Mission 2.0: India's ₹40,000 Crore Bet on Full-Stack Sovereignty
Union Budget 2026 announced India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 with a ₹40,000 crore outlay under the expanded Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS). This follows ISM 1.0's success: 10 approved projects from Micron Technology, Tata Electronics, and others, representing cumulative investments of ₹1.60 lakh crore across six states.
What's new in ISM 2.0:
Focus on industry-led research centres and training facilities
Target: Develop full-stack Indian semiconductor IP—from design to equipment manufacturing
Strategic shift from assembly/testing (ATMP) to upstream fab capabilities Sectoral sentiment: The original ECMS attracted investment commitments at nearly twice its targets within months of launch in April 2025, demonstrating industry appetite. IndieSemiC CEO Nikul Shah noted that raising the outlay to ₹40,000 crore is "essential to ensure design-led companies can scale alongside manufacturing investments".
Global Tech: AI Infrastructure Funding Rebounds
Indian AI startups are attracting fresh institutional capital despite broader funding caution. Major VCs in India are lining up $300–500 million+ for AI investments, signaling confidence in strategic sectors. This aligns with a broader trend: India's startup funding jumped 668% week-on-week (Feb 13–19 vs Feb 6–12), led by deeptech and climate tech.
3Funding Radar
Week of Feb 6–12, 2026: ₹2,279 Crore Across 30 Deals
India's private markets showed depth and diversity, with capital flowing into renewables, consumer brands, fintech, SaaS, and B2B commerce. The standout: sectoral spread—from infrastructure-scale clean energy to asset-light digital platforms.
Top 3 Deals:
Radiance Renewables Private Limited — ₹907 crores (09 Feb 2026)
Investors: Impact Fund Denmark, Netherlands Development Finance Company
Sector: Clean Energy Infrastructure
Context: Largest raise of the week; global development finance participation signals long-term bet on scalable renewable platforms. Likely earmarked for project expansion and balance-sheet strengthening as corporate green power demand accelerates.
Smartcoin Financials Private Limited (Olvy India) — ₹207 crores Series C (09 Feb 2026)
Investors: Fundamentum Partnership, SMBC Asia Rising Fund
Sector: Digital Credit & Fintech Infrastructure
Context: Continued momentum in lending stack expansion. Expected use: Deepen underwriting models and expand credit access across underbanked segments.
Pandorum Technologies Private Limited — ₹163 crores Series B (09 Feb 2026)
Investors: Anivya Ventures, Burman Family Holdings, Protons Corporate Services, Galactic Pharma India, LVT, Ashish Kacholia, Nobleast Advisory
Sector: Biotech & Deep Science
Context: Diverse investor mix combining strategic, family office, and market-linked capital suggests long-term conviction in R&D-led healthcare pipeline. Sectoral ripple effects: Advanced Hardware & Technology saw highest deal count (4 deals, $17 million cumulative). Ace investor Ashish Kacholia emerged as most active with two investments—4baseCare and 1Buy.AI. Seed-stage funding slumped 40% week-on-week, with only three startups raising $12.9 million.
Week of Feb 13–19, 2026: Funding surged to $285.3 million across 17 deals, up 42% from preceding week. Notable raises included Spinny and Statiq, reflecting continued investor confidence in used-car platforms and EV charging infrastructure.
PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery Limited IPO enters final day of subscription today (closes 24 Feb 2026).
Issue Details:
Parameter Details
Issue Size ₹40.50 crores (book-built issue)
Price Band ₹81–85 per share
Lot Size 150 shares
Dates Anchor: 19 Feb | Retail: 20–24 Feb
Listing Date Expected 27 Feb 2026
Lead Managers Fedex Securities Limited, Integrated Enterprise India Limited
Table 1: PNGS Reva IPO Parameters
Business: Diamond jewellery manufacturer and retailer operating in Gujarat and Maharashtra. The company focuses on branded diamond jewellery with an omnichannel presence.
Subscription Status (As of 23 Feb evening — provisional):
Overall subscription not yet disclosed; retail and HNI segments expected to drive demand
Grey Market Premium (GMP): Data unavailable; caution advised given SME segment volatility
Oorjita Pre-Emptive Read:
Valuation Context: SME segment IPO with limited peer comparables in listed space. Kalyan Jewellers trades at ~35x P/E (₹500+ crore market cap), while Titan Company commands 70+ P/E. PNGS Reva's small scale (₹40 crores) limits institutional interest but offers retail participation.
Red Flags:
SME platform listing — lower liquidity, higher volatility risk
Limited financial disclosures in public domain; refer to DRHP for complete financials
Diamond sector exposed to import duty fluctuations and rupee volatility
Green Flags:
+ Omnichannel strategy aligns with jewellery sector digitization trend + Gujarat-Maharashtra geography offers strong jewellery consumption base + Branded diamond segment showing steady growth post-pandemic Key Watch Metric Today: Final subscription numbers (especially retail category) and anchor allocation quality. Any subscription below 2x in retail segment would signal weak listing sentiment.
Timeline: Subscription closes today (24 Feb) → Allotment 26 Feb → Listing 27 Feb (expected).
PNGS Reva — IPO subscription closes today; SME listing watch
6Quick Bytes
Off-Radar Data Points
FII Buying Streak Continues: Monday saw FII net inflow of ₹3,550.66 crores (Gross Buy: ₹14,694.34 cr | Gross Sell: ₹11,143.68 cr). This marks a reversal from recent selling pressure. However, DII net sold ₹1,417.12 crores—watch if this trend reverses today amid global risk-off.
INR Resilience Tested: USD/INR closed at 90.9170 on 23 Feb (+0.21%), approaching the 91 handle. RBI reference rate for 20 Feb was 90.9518. Further tariff escalation could push INR toward 91.50–92.00 levels—last tested in January 2026 when it hit an all-time high of 92.29.
Crude Volatility: Brent crude futures showing heightened volatility amid tariff concerns and Middle East geopolitical risks. India's crude import bill sensitive to moves above $85/barrel.
Kospi Record Highs: South Korea's Kospi hit record 5,522 points before Monday's pullback. Tech sector outperformance driven by AI semiconductor demand—contrast with India's lagging IT sector.
7Deep Dive — Hot Topic of the Day
Trump's Tariff Whiplash: What India Must Price In
The Overnight Reversal
In a span of 24 hours, Indian markets experienced a tariff-induced whipsaw. Monday's 350-point Sensex rally was built on the premise that the US Supreme Court had invalidated Trump's tariff framework. By Monday night (US time), Trump announced a replacement 15% blanket global tariff, sending Wall Street into a tailspin.
India's Tariff Timeline (2025–2026)
August 2025: Trump imposed tariffs on India; sectoral breakdown included exemptions for specific categories
February 2, 2026: Trump cut India tariffs from 50% to 18% after PM Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil
February 23, 2026: New 15% blanket global tariff announced, overriding prior agreements
Sectoral Impact Analysis
Sector Exposure Impact Assessment
IT Services High (60% US revenue) Margin pressure; watch TCS, Infosys
Pharmaceuticals Medium (40% US exports) API costs rise; pass-through challenging
Textiles High Already facing 15%+ tariffs; incremental pain
Auto Components Medium OEM contracts renegotiation risk
Trade buffer: India maintains 3–4 months of import cover; rupee depreciation acts as natural hedge
IT sector contribution to GDP: 7.4%; tariffs unlikely to directly impact services, but regulatory/visa risks loom
Peer Comparison — How APAC Markets Are Pricing Risk
China: Already factored in maximum tariff escalation; CSI 300 showing resilience
Vietnam: High export dependence; Hanoi index down 3.2% over past week
India: Nifty down 2.14% over four weeks despite Monday's rally; relatively defensive positioning
Actionable Investor Takeaway:
Hedge tariff risk via defensives: Pharma (domestic-focused), FMCG, utilities
Avoid high US-revenue stocks near expiry: IT majors, textile exporters
Watch INR as leading indicator: Break above 91.50 would signal FII risk-off acceleration
Structural opportunity: ISM 2.0 and electronics manufacturing offer medium-term hedges against supply-chain reshoring Oorjita View: Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news. Once tariff framework stabilizes (even if unfavorable), risk premiums compress. Until then, expiry days like today will amplify volatility—stay nimble, size positions conservatively, and prioritize liquidity.
8What to Watch Today
Macro: No major RBI or government data releases scheduled; focus remains on global cues
Earnings: Quarterly results season largely over; any delayed filings or restatements to watch
Global: US markets closed overnight at lows; any Trump tariff clarification or Fed commentary would move sentiment
FPI/DII Flows: Monday's FII net buy of ₹3,550.66 crores vs DII net sell of ₹1,417.12 crores—reversal today would signal capitulation
F&O Expiry: Nifty 50 monthly and Bank Nifty weekly expiry; max pain analysis and rollover costs critical
Crude & INR: Brent crude volatility and USD/INR testing 91 handle—watch for RBI intervention signals
9Quote of the Day
"In a tariff-driven market, the only certainty is volatility. Position for range-bound chaos, not directional conviction."
— Market commentary, Bloomberg terminal, 23 February 2026, 10:47 PM EST
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Markets are subject to risks and uncertainties. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Oorjita FinAI Services
Investing Beyond Today
Disclosures and notes
Website: oorjita.ai
Newsletter Editions:
Morning Brief (Pre-Market Analysis) - Daily 8:00-8:30 AM IST
Evening Update ("What We Missed") - Daily 7:00-7:30 PM IST
Weekly Market Manthan - Every Sunday
Quarterly Company Deep-Dives (Samiksa Oorjita Series)
Hidden Gems Deep dive
Compliance & Disclaimer
www.oorjita.ai is not operated by a broker, a dealer, or a registered investment adviser. Under no circumstances does any information posted on www.oorjita.ai represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. In no event shall Oorjita Fin AI Services be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on www.oorjita.ai, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, www.oorjita.ai or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance.
