GIFT Nifty futures are indicating a weak start, trading at 25,177.50, down 39 points from yesterday's close. The key difference from previous sessions is the global backdrop -US markets snapped their three-day record streak as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious commentary on rate cuts and remarks…
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Dr. Murali KalyanaramanGlobal CFO · 30+ years in corporate finance · Chartered Accountant (ICAI) · 5 min read
Signal panelThe research, before the reading · 5 min full note
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Sector Resilience: Despite the panic, industry body NASSCOM revealed that Indian IT companies are spending over $1 billion on local upskilling and hiring in the US.
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Actionable Trigger: Watch for management commentary from IT majors during upcoming quarterly results.
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Concerning Trend: Digital lending startups faced a 50% plunge in VC funding in 2025, highlighting sector-specific challenges.
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Gold Rush: Spot gold surged to a fresh all-time high of $3,790.82, driven by China's strategic positioning as a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves and expectations of further US rate cuts.
Our stance
BearishCautiousBullish
Levels we are watching
Nifty support25,150
Good Morning & Market Recap
Good morning. The consolidation continues on Dalal Street as Indian equities closed marginally lower for the third consecutive session yesterday, with the Nifty 50 slipping 33 points to 25,169.50 and the Sensex down 58 points to 82,102.10. However, Bank Nifty bucked the trend, gaining 225 points to close at 55,509.75, signaling a defensive rotation into financials.
What's different today? GIFT Nifty futures are indicating a weak start, trading at 25,177.50, down 39 points from yesterday's close. The key difference from previous sessions is the global backdrop -US markets snapped their three-day record streak as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious commentary on rate cuts and remarks about "fairly highly valued" equity prices dampened sentiment.
Overnight: Wall Street pulled back (tech led) after Powell’s “balance risks” comments; gold hovered near records; oil remains soft/volatile on supply headlines.
Key watch factors (today):
Any fresh Fed/Powell signalling ahead of US PCE (Fri).
Dollar & USD/INR after yesterday’s 88.74 FBIL print (importers’ hedging costs, gold ETFs).
Crude swings if Iraq-Turkey pipeline restart headlines firm up
Tech Pulse: H-1B Aftershocks Continue
The H-1B visa fee shock continues to reverberate through India's IT sector, with the narrative expanding beyond immediate cost concerns to strategic business model shifts.[10][11]
Sector Resilience: Despite the panic, industry body NASSCOM revealed that Indian IT companies are spending over $1 billion on local upskilling and hiring in the US. This positions the sector for a strategic pivot toward higher-value services and local talent development.
GCC Opportunity: The $100,000 H-1B fee could be a windfall for India's $60 billion Global Capability Centre (GCC) industry, as US firms may accelerate offshoring to India to avoid visa costs.
Gold’s AI-era hedge: bullion near ATH as rate-cut odds persist—IT valuations sensitive if real yields wobble; watch Indian IT open vs USD/INR
Domestic semi narrative: Micron Sanand OSAT ramp and Foxconn OSAT momentum keep “India chips” theme alive; medium-term capex tails for EPC/industrial suppliers
Funding Radar
The Indian startup ecosystem showed resilience with significant funding activity despite global headwinds:
Weekly Surge: Indian startups raised over $360 million between September 15-20, 2025, across 21 deals, with PharmEasy leading the funding rounds. This marks a strong recovery from the previous week's 74% dip.
Sectoral Diversity: Funding activity spanned semiconductors (Tessolve ₹1,323 crore), social commerce (CityMall ₹414 crore), and edtech (Seekho ₹247 crore). The diversity indicates investor confidence across multiple sectors.
Gullak (digital gold platform) $7.5m led by Chiratae.
P-Tal (kitchenware/exports) $3m led by VC Grid & Rainmatter.
Amwoodo (bamboo-based alt-plastics) ₹35–36 cr pre-Series-A led by Rainmatter & others.
Wankel Energy Systems (IIT-M) $1m pre-seed (steam-to-power).
Concerning Trend: Digital lending startups faced a 50% plunge in VC funding in 2025, highlighting sector-specific challenges. However, established players like Tata 1mg are likely to secure $200 million in fresh funding.
Defensive Winners: PSU Bank and Metal indices gained over 1% each, while Banking stocks like Axis Bank (+2.28%) and IndusInd Bank (+2.82%) led the gainers list.
FMCG Under Pressure: The Nifty FMCG index shed 1.3%, with Trent (-2.33%), HUL (-1.64%), and Nestle among the top losers.
Technical Levels: Bank Nifty's immediate resistance is placed at 55,600, while support lies around 55,250. Nifty's short-term support remains at 25,150.
Quick Bytes
Gold Rush: Spot gold surged to a fresh all-time high of $3,790.82, driven by China's strategic positioning as a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves and expectations of further US rate cuts. In Mumbai's Zaveri Bazaar, 10-gram gold jumped nearly 2% to a record ₹1,13,856.
Gold still “sizzling” as a macro hedge even on tech wobble days.
Deep Dive: The Great Defensive Rotation
Yesterday's market action revealed a sophisticated defensive positioning strategy as investors rotated from growth-oriented sectors to defensive plays. The 1% gain in PSU Banks and Metals, contrasted with the 1.3% decline in FMCG, signals institutional money seeking refuge in domestic-focused, interest-rate-sensitive sectors.
This rotation is particularly significant given the global uncertainty. With Fed Chair Powell highlighting the dual mandate challenges and Asian markets declining this morning, Indian investors are positioning for potential volatility. The Bank Nifty's outperformance (+0.41% vs Nifty's -0.13%) indicates confidence in the domestic banking sector's fundamentals despite global headwinds.
What to Watch Today
IPO Activity: Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers (₹393-414), Jaro Institute (₹846-890), and Solarworld Energy Solutions (₹333-351) open for subscription today. This represents nearly ₹2,000 crore in fresh equity issuance.
Global Cues: US futures are flat after yesterday's tech-led decline. Watch for any additional Fed official commentary following Powell's cautious stance.
FII Flows: After ₹2,910 crore of FII selling on Monday, today's flows will be crucial for market sentiment.
"Chair Powell in his speech emphasised that 'near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside', highlighting the challenges of balancing the Fed's dual mandate in the current environment." — Westpac Research Analysts (Sep 24, 2025, 07:00 AM)
Compliance Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All data is sourced from public information and is believed to be accurate as of the time of publication. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Whatever trends you're following today: hope you're early enough to profifit and wise enough to exit.
This research is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Figures may be provisional. Oorjita.AI and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions. Published Wednesday, 24 September 2025, 8:25 AM IST.